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Match analysis · Major League Soccer

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FC Cincinnati 2-3 New England Revolution: Match Analysis & Model Review

FC Cincinnati 2-3 New England Revolution in Major League Soccer, Wednesday, October 14: how the goals came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 15, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

A 3-2 win for New England Revolution over FC Cincinnati in Major League Soccer on Wednesday, October 14, with 2-3 the final score. FC Cincinnati struck first, but New England Revolution levelled and went in front before half-time, then extended the lead after the break. FC Cincinnati responded, but could not draw level again.

The interval score was 1-2. New England Revolution held a two-goal lead at 1-3, and Dor Turgeman finished the match with a brace. The result reflected a game in which the lead changed hands once and the score was levelled once.

How it unfolded

Tom Barlow gave FC Cincinnati the lead in the 13th minute, making it 1-0. Dor Turgeman brought New England Revolution level in the 21st minute; Joshua Wynder then put the visitors ahead in the 43rd minute, setting the interval score at 1-2.

Dor Turgeman scored again for New England Revolution in the 51st minute, making it 1-3. FC Cincinnati replied through Kevin Denkey in the 67th minute, but that was the final goal.

The numbers

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FC Cincinnati had 7 shots to New England Revolution's 5, with 4 and 3 on target respectively. Possession was close: FC Cincinnati had 51%, while New England Revolution recorded 49%. The expected-goals figures were 0.3 for FC Cincinnati and 0.63 for New England Revolution.

Both teams won 4 corners. The save count was 1 for FC Cincinnati and 4 for New England Revolution. The scoreline comprised two goals for FC Cincinnati and three goals for New England Revolution, or five goals in all.

Standout performers

D. Turgeman was New England Revolution's best-rated player, rated 9.2 with 2 goals. Turgeman levelled the match and later increased New England's lead; Joshua Wynder scored the goal that put the visitors in front.

For FC Cincinnati, T. Malacia was the best-rated player, earning 8.0 with 2 assists. The assists were a notable contribution, but FC Cincinnati could not turn its late reply into an equaliser.

How the model called it

Goalorithm's pre-match probabilities are estimates. The model gave FC Cincinnati a 46.8% chance of winning, a draw 22.3%, and New England Revolution a 30.8% chance. Its most likely outcome was FC Cincinnati to win; it gave the actual result 30.8%, and the result went against the model's most likely outcome.

The model's call favoured an FC Cincinnati win, but New England Revolution left with the points. FC Cincinnati did score first, yet the visitors' response changed the match before the interval, and their later goal proved decisive.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Major League Soccer

FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution

Wed, Oct 14 · 7:30 PM ET · TQL Stadium

Full time

2–3

Half-time 1–2

  • 13'Tom Barlow1–0
  • 21'Dor Turgeman1–1
  • 43'Joshua Wynder1–2
  • 51'Dor Turgeman1–3
  • 67'Kevin Denkey2–3

The model before the game

FC Cincinnati
46.8%
Draw
22.3%
New England Revolution
30.8%

The result went against the model's most likely outcome.

The numbers

FC CincinnatiStatisticNew England Revolution
1saves4
7shots5
4corners4
51%possession49%
0.3expected goals0.63
4shots on target3
Open the Match Center

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