Published September 28, 2026 · Updated October 1, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Faroe Islands 1–1 Slovakia. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Faroe Islands host Slovakia in the UEFA Nations League on Friday, October 2, with kick-off at 2:45 p.m. ET. The model’s central story is a Slovakia win, with the teams’ positions in the group also setting up a meeting between the side at the top and the side in second.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model gives Faroe Islands a win 16.8%, a draw 25.8% and Slovakia a win 57.4%; its likeliest result is a Slovakia win. Its ordering is a Slovakia win (57.4%), then a draw (25.8%), then a Faroe Islands win (16.8%).
The expected-goals figures are 0.8 for Faroe Islands and 1.6 for Slovakia. The model puts under 2.5 goals at 58.2% and over 2.5 goals at 41.8%; it gives both teams scoring 41.7%, while 58.3% is the chance that at least one side fails to score. Those figures point to a game in which a clean sheet is a credible outcome, rather than one that necessarily opens up into a high-scoring contest.
The leading correct-score outcomes are 0-1 (14.8%), 0-2 (11.8%) and 1-1 (11.4%). Each has its own probability, so the scoreline list offers several possible shapes to the match rather than a single forecast beyond the model’s overall pick.