Published September 28, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Estonia 1–0 Luxembourg. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Estonia host Luxembourg in the UEFA Nations League on Saturday, October 3 at 12:00 p.m. ET. The model’s likeliest result is a draw, while the current Group 4 table has Luxembourg above Estonia. Luxembourg arrive on a run of wins, giving the visitors a positive recent-results backdrop for a fixture the model does not reduce to a clear outcome.
What the model expects
The model’s outcome order is a draw (37.7%), then a Luxembourg win (33.4%), then an Estonia win (28.9%). These probabilities are estimates, and the draw leads the model’s view of the match; neither team win is far outside its forecast. The model gives Estonia 28.9%, a draw 37.7%, and Luxembourg 33.4%.
The goal forecast is close to an even split: over 2.5 goals at 48.2%, while under 2.5 goals at 51.8%. The model gives both teams a chance of scoring at 52.8%; its figure for at least one side failing to score is 47.2%. Those are related but distinct parts of the forecast: the total-goals estimate concerns the combined score, while the both-teams-to-score figure concerns whether each side gets on the board.
Expected goals are 1.2 for Estonia and 1.4 for Luxembourg. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11.9%, with 0-0 at 11.1% and 0-1 at 9.1% also among the model’s leading outcomes. Together, those scorelines show why the draw heads the outcome order without excluding a win for either side. They also give a more specific picture than the overall goals estimate: the model’s leading score is level, while its other listed possibilities include a win to nil.