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Match analysis · UEFA Nations League

Research workspace

Estonia 1-0 Luxembourg: Match Analysis & Model Review

Estonia 1-0 Luxembourg in the UEFA Nations League, Saturday, October 3: how the goal came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 3, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Estonia beat Luxembourg in the UEFA Nations League, with Rasmus Peetson’s goal in the 5th minute deciding the contest. The match finished 1-0, and the half-time score was 1-0.

The scoreline reflected a game with one goal overall. Estonia’s early goal remained the difference through to the final whistle, securing a 1-0 win for Estonia over Luxembourg. The lead was never lost, as only Estonia ever led. The only goal arrived before the break, leaving Luxembourg needing a response after half-time but without a goal to change the outcome.

How it unfolded

Rasmus Peetson scored for Estonia in the 5th minute, making it 1-0. That was the only goal, and only Estonia ever led. The goal established the margin that held for the rest of the match.

The score at the interval was 1-0. No further goals followed, so the opening strike remained decisive.

The numbers

The shot count was Estonia 3 and Luxembourg 3. Estonia recorded 3 shots on target, while Luxembourg recorded 0. The figures show that Estonia put every attempt on target, while Luxembourg did not register a shot on target. The match produced few attempts overall, and the single goal separated the teams.

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Matches
Predictions
My Picks

Possession was Estonia 54% and Luxembourg 46%. The corner count was Estonia 2 and Luxembourg 1; saves were Estonia 0 and Luxembourg 2. Those numbers sit alongside a match settled by the early goal rather than a succession of scores. Both teams had attempts and corners, but only Estonia found the net.

Standout performers

Rasmus Peetson supplied the decisive moment with his goal in the 5th minute. His strike gave Estonia the lead, and it proved enough to settle a game that ended with one goal for Estonia and no goals for Luxembourg. The scorer’s contribution defined the result: there was no later goal to alter the margin.

How the model called it

Before kick-off, the model estimated an Estonia win at 31.5%, a draw at 32.1% and a Luxembourg win at 36.4%. These probabilities are estimates. The model’s most likely outcome was Luxembourg to win, and it assigned the actual result a probability of 31.5%.

The result went against the model's most likely outcome. Estonia converted the early goal into a win, while the model’s pre-match assessment had identified Luxembourg as the likeliest winner. The prediction and the final outcome therefore pointed in different directions.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

UEFA Nations League

Estonia vs Luxembourg

Sat, Oct 3 · 12:00 PM ET · A. Le Coq Arena

Full time

1–0

Half-time 1–0

  • 5'Rasmus Peetson1–0

The model before the game

Estonia
31.5%
Draw
32.1%
Luxembourg
36.4%

The result went against the model's most likely outcome.

The numbers

EstoniaStatisticLuxembourg
0saves2
3shots3
2corners1
54%possession46%
3shots on target0
Open the Match Center

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