Published September 30, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Dominican Republic 1–4 Haiti. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Dominican Republic host Haiti in the CONCACAF Nations League on Thursday, October 1 at 8:00 p.m. ET, with the fixture set for Félix Sánchez Olympic Stadium, Santo Domingo. The model's likeliest result is a Haiti win, but its exact-score projections point to a closely balanced range of possible outcomes rather than a single clear scoreline.
What the model expects
The model gives a Haiti win (43.1%), then a Dominican Republic win (30.9%), then a draw (26%). That makes a Haiti win its leading outcome, while a Dominican Republic win and a draw also feature in the forecast. These probabilities are estimates; the wider picture is a match in which the model sees routes to goals for both sides, alongside meaningful uncertainty over the result.
For the goal total, the model has over 2.5 goals at 55.9% and under 2.5 goals at 44.1%. It gives both teams a chance to score at 58.4%, while the chance that at least one side fails to score is 41.6%. Those figures describe separate parts of the forecast: the total-goals estimate and whether both teams find the net. Neither rules out a match that breaks from the most likely pattern.
Expected goals are 1.2 for Dominican Republic and 1.6 for Haiti. The model therefore projects contributions from each attack, with Haiti carrying the larger expected-goals figure. That sits alongside its result forecast, which has a Haiti win at the top but leaves the other outcomes in play.