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Match analysis · CONCACAF Nations League

Research workspace

Dominican Republic 1-4 Haiti: Match Analysis & Model Review

Dominican Republic 1-4 Haiti in the CONCACAF Nations League, Thursday, October 1: the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 1, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Haiti beat Dominican Republic 1-4 in the CONCACAF Nations League on Thursday, October 1, with the sides separated by 0-1 at half-time. The match finished as a 4-1 win for Haiti over Dominican Republic, with Dominican Republic scoring one goal and Haiti scoring four goals. The game at Félix Sánchez Olympic Stadium produced five goals in all.

The numbers

The shot count was 8 for Dominican Republic and 8 for Haiti. Of those attempts, 4 from Dominican Republic and 6 from Haiti were on target. The sides had 49% and 51% possession, respectively, while the corner totals were 3 for Dominican Republic and 4 for Haiti.

Those figures put the score in context without changing the basic account of the result: Haiti scored four goals, while Dominican Republic scored one goal. The shot totals were level, but the on-target counts were not. Possession was also close, and the corner figures remained within a single corner of each other. The save totals were 4 for Dominican Republic and 3 for Haiti, another measure of the work required from both goalkeepers. Taken together, the match data show that both teams recorded attempts and created on-target efforts, while the final score favoured Haiti by a clear margin. The half-time score had Haiti ahead, and the final score extended that advantage. There is no need to read the possession share as a measure of the result: Haiti left with the win, and the scoreline records the decisive difference in goals.

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Standout performers

D. Romero was Dominican Republic’s best-rated player, with a rating of 7.5 and 1 goal. For Haiti, L. Deedson earned the best rating in the side, 8.1, and also recorded 1 goal. The two standout ratings belong to players who both scored, giving each team’s leading performer a direct contribution to the match’s goal tally. Those contributions do not alter the broader team outcome: Haiti scored four goals and Dominican Republic scored one goal.

How the model called it

Before kick-off, Goalorithm’s model gave Dominican Republic a 24.3% chance of winning, a draw 24.6%, and a Haiti win 51.1%. These probabilities are estimates. The model’s most likely outcome was Haiti to win, and the model's most likely outcome happened. Haiti’s victory therefore aligned with the model’s pre-match call, while the scoreline records how the contest finished.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

CONCACAF Nations League

Dominican Republic vs Haiti

Thu, Oct 1 · 8:00 PM ET · Félix Sánchez Olympic Stadium

Full time

1–4

Half-time 0–1

The model before the game

Dominican Republic
24.3%
Draw
24.6%
Haiti
51.1%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

The numbers

Dominican RepublicStatisticHaiti
4saves3
8shots8
3corners4
49%possession51%
4shots on target6
Open the Match Center

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