Published September 27, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Dominica 0–2 Puerto Rico. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Dominica host Puerto Rico in the CONCACAF Nations League on Sunday, September 27 at 8:00 p.m. ET. Goalorithm’s model makes Puerto Rico the likeliest winner, while its estimates also leave a substantial share of the outcome to a draw or a Dominica victory. The central question in the numbers is whether Puerto Rico can turn its edge in expected goals into the result the model favours.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model gives Dominica 26.4%, a draw 27.1% and Puerto Rico 46.5%; its ordering is a Puerto Rico win (46.5%), then a draw (27.1%), then a Dominica win (26.4%). That makes a Puerto Rico win the model’s likeliest result, not a certainty. The draw and home-win probabilities keep the other outcomes firmly in the picture, so the forecast is not simply a one-sided call. It points toward Puerto Rico, but leaves meaningful room for the match to finish differently.
The expected-goals figures are 0.9 for Dominica and 1.4 for Puerto Rico. The model’s most likely scorelines are 0-1 (13.9%), 0-0 (11.7%) and 1-1 (10.5%). Each offers a different possible shape to the finish: 0-1 has Puerto Rico ahead without a goal for Dominica, 0-0 is goalless, and 1-1 has both sides on the scoresheet. None stands alone as a definitive prediction; together they show the range of outcomes the model considers most plausible.