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Match analysis · UEFA Europa League

Research workspace

Dinamo Zagreb 1-0 Anderlecht: Match Analysis & Model Review

Dinamo Zagreb 1-0 Anderlecht in the UEFA Europa League, Thursday, October 15: how the goal came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 15, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

A 1-0 win for Dinamo Zagreb over Anderlecht in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday, October 15. The sides were level at 0-0 at the interval, before Dion Drena Beljo converted a penalty for Dinamo Zagreb in the 90th minute (+6). That goal made it 1-0, and the match finished 1-0.

Played at Stadion Maksimir, the lead story was that only Dinamo Zagreb ever led. The penalty supplied the only goal, leaving Dinamo Zagreb with one goal and Anderlecht with no goals.

How it unfolded

There was no goal before the break: Dinamo Zagreb and Anderlecht went in at 0-0. The only goal came in the 90th minute (+6), when Dion Drena Beljo scored from the penalty spot for Dinamo Zagreb to make it 1-0. That was the full extent of the scoring, with Dinamo Zagreb finishing on one goal and Anderlecht on no goals. The late penalty therefore separated the teams in a match that had remained scoreless through half-time.

The numbers

Dinamo Zagreb attempted 13 shots and put 3 on target; Anderlecht had 10 attempts, with 6 on target. Expected goals were 1.82 for Dinamo Zagreb and 1.18 for Anderlecht, recording the quality of the chances created across the match. Possession was 45% for Dinamo Zagreb and 55% for Anderlecht. The corner count finished at 6 for Dinamo Zagreb and 2 for Anderlecht.

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Week
Predictions
My Tracker

The match produced one goal in all. Goalkeepers recorded 6 saves for Dinamo Zagreb and 2 for Anderlecht. Shots, shots on target, expected goals, possession and corners describe different parts of the contest; the scoreline records the outcome, while the save totals show the goalkeepers’ work. The penalty was the only goal, and there was no further scoring to alter the result.

Standout performers

Dinamo Zagreb's best-rated player was D. Kotarski, with a rating of 8.4. For Anderlecht, the best rating went to O. Reabciuk, who received 7.5. Those ratings identify the leading individual performers for each side, even in a match whose outcome turned on a late spot-kick.

How the model called it

Before kick-off, Goalorithm's model assigned Dinamo Zagreb a win probability of 47.5%, the draw 26.4%, and an Anderlecht win 26.1%. These probabilities are estimates. Its most likely outcome was Dinamo Zagreb to win, with the model giving them 47.5%; the model's most likely outcome happened. The final score, 1-0, was the model's 2nd-likeliest score.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

UEFA Europa League

Dinamo Zagreb vs Anderlecht

Thu, Oct 15 · 3:00 PM ET · Stadion Maksimir

Full time

1–0

Half-time 0–0

  • 90'+6Dion Drena Beljo (penalty)1–0

The model before the game

Dinamo Zagreb
47.5%
Draw
26.4%
Anderlecht
26.1%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

The numbers

Dinamo ZagrebStatisticAnderlecht
6saves2
13shots10
6corners2
45%possession55%
1.82expected goals1.18
3shots on target6
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