Published September 27, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Denmark 2–0 Wales. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Denmark host Wales in the UEFA Nations League on Sunday, September 27 at 12:00 p.m. ET, with both sides arriving on 0 points from 1 game and 0 points from 1 game. The model's likeliest result is a Denmark win, but its forecast also allows for a draw or a Wales win. The central question in its outlook is whether Denmark can turn the attacking edge in its projections into the result it favours.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model's outcomes, from likeliest down, are a Denmark win (62.8%), then a draw (21.5%), then a Wales win (15.7%); its lean is Denmark to win. That points to Denmark as the expected winner, while leaving a meaningful share of the forecast for either alternative. The outlook is directional rather than absolute: the model assigns a probability to each result, not a guarantee of how the match will finish.
For goals, the model gives over 2.5 goals at 50.3% and under 2.5 goals at 49.7%. Those figures put the total-goals outlook close to an even split, so the model does not make a strong call on whether the match will pass that line. Its both-teams-to-score estimate is 44.5%, while 55.5% represents the chance that at least one side fails to score. That second figure does not mean a goalless draw; it includes any result in which one team scores and the other does not.
The expected-goals figures are Denmark 1.9 and Wales 0.7. They give the forecast a clear attacking tilt towards Denmark, without settling the exact score. The likeliest scorelines are 1-0 (13%), 2-0 (12.6%) and 0-0 (10.2%). Their spread captures more than one plausible shape of result: the model's leading possibilities include a narrow Denmark win, a larger margin, and a draw without goals.