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Match analysis · UEFA Nations League

Research workspace

Denmark 2-0 Wales: Match Analysis & Model Review

Denmark 2-0 Wales in the UEFA Nations League, Sunday, September 27: how the goals came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published September 27, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Denmark beat Wales in the UEFA Nations League on Sunday, September 27, with a 2-0 win for Denmark over Wales. The sides were level at half-time before Denmark found the breakthrough after the interval and added another goal, finishing with two goals while Wales had no goals.

The final score was 2-0. Denmark had the larger share of possession and more attempts, while both sides registered the same number of shots on target. Wales took more corners, but could not turn them into a goal. Denmark’s advantage came through the scoring, with the opening goal arriving as an own goal and the second supplied by Gustav Isaksen.

How it unfolded

The teams reached the interval at 0-0. The deadlock broke in the 53rd minute, when Ben Davies scored an own goal for Denmark to make it 1-0. That put Denmark in front without a goal from one of their own players.

Denmark extended the advantage in the 66th minute, when Gustav Isaksen scored for Denmark to make it 2-0. The goals established the full margin of a two-goal lead at 2-0; only Denmark ever led. The scoring sequence settled the contest, with no Wales goal to change the outcome.

The numbers

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Matches
Predictions
My Picks

Denmark recorded 18 shots and Wales 10. Both teams had 3 shots on target, so the difference in total attempts did not carry over to that measure. Possession was 63% for Denmark and 37% for Wales, giving Denmark the greater share of the ball.

Wales had 4 corners, against 2 for Denmark. Denmark made 3 saves and Wales 1. The match produced two goals in all. Those figures describe a game in which Denmark held more of the ball and attempted more shots, while the teams were level on target efforts and Wales led the corner count.

Standout performers

G. Isaksen was Denmark’s best-rated player, with a rating of 8.2 and 1 goal. Isaksen’s goal made him a direct contributor to the scoreline, as Denmark converted their second-half advantage into a win.

Wales’s best-rated player was N. Williams, who received 7.1. The rating identifies Williams as Wales’s standout by this measure, despite the team ending the match without a goal.

How the model called it

Before kickoff, Goalorithm’s model gave Denmark a win probability of 57.3%, a draw probability of 24.6%, and a Wales win probability of 18.1%. These probabilities are estimates. The model’s most likely outcome was Denmark to win, and it gave the actual result 57.3%; the model's most likely outcome happened.

The final score 2-0 was the model's 2nd-likeliest score. The model therefore identified the match outcome correctly, while its score forecast was not an exact match.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

UEFA Nations League

Denmark vs Wales

Sun, Sep 27 · 12:00 PM ET · Parken Stadium

Full time

2–0

Half-time 0–0

  • 53'Ben Davies (own goal)1–0
  • 66'Gustav Isaksen2–0

The model before the game

Denmark
57.3%
Draw
24.6%
Wales
18.1%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

The numbers

DenmarkStatisticWales
3saves1
18shots10
2corners4
63%possession37%
3shots on target3
Open the Match Center

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