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Preview · UEFA Nations League

Research workspace

Denmark vs Portugal Prediction & Preview (October 1)

Denmark vs Portugal in the UEFA Nations League, Thursday, October 1. Goalorithm's model makes Portugal win the most likely result at 46.7%. Form, the table and the likeliest scores.

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Published September 27, 2026 · Updated September 30, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Full time: Denmark 2–4 Portugal. Read the match analysis →

Preview

Denmark host Portugal in the UEFA Nations League on Thursday, October 1, with the visitors arriving above their hosts in Group 4. Portugal have the stronger points position, while Goalorithm’s model makes a Portugal win the likeliest outcome without ruling out a Denmark win or a draw.

What the model expects

The model’s outcomes run a Portugal win (46.7%), then a Denmark win (27.3%), then a draw (25.9%). These probabilities are estimates, and the model’s likeliest result is a Portugal win.

The goals outlook is close: the model gives over 2.5 goals at 52.4%, against under 2.5 goals at 47.6%. It gives both teams a chance to score at 54.7%; the chance that at least one side fails to score is 45.3%. Expected goals are 1.1 for Denmark and 1.6 for Portugal.

The leading exact-score possibilities are 1-1 at 11.3%, 0-0 at 9.9% and 0-1 at 9.5%. The model therefore allows for a level scoreline as well as a narrow win for the visitors. Its expected-goals figures give Portugal the larger projection, while the outcome probabilities still leave meaningful scope for either side to take the points.

Form and standings

More soccer news

All news →

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Fri, Oct 9 · 1:45 PM ET

SoccerPreview· Eredivisie

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PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen in Eredivisie, Friday, October 9. Goalorithm's model makes PSV Eindhoven win the most likely result at 72.7%. Form, the table, team news, head-to-head and the likeliest scores.

Fri, Oct 9 · 2:00 PM ET

Matches
Predictions
My Picks

Portugal have 3 wins and 1 draw across 4 games, with 7 goals scored and 4 conceded. Their recent sequence is WWDW, and the latest entry is a 2-1 away win against Norway on September 27. They arrive on 2 wins in a row, giving the visitors a current run of results to carry into this fixture.

Denmark have 3 points from 2 games and sit 3rd in Group 4; Portugal have 6 points from 2 games and sit 1st in Group 4. Portugal sit above Denmark. That is the standings picture going into the game, while the model’s forecast remains a separate assessment of the possible result.

Team news

No team news is on file yet, and line-ups have not been announced.

What to watch

The central question is whether Portugal can turn their stronger position in the group and recent results into the model’s likeliest outcome. Denmark remain part of the forecast: the model includes a home win, and its most prominent exact-score option is level. That makes the expected-goals split and the close goals outlook useful measures of how the model sees the contest, rather than a prediction of a one-way game.

The model’s scoring estimates lean slightly toward both teams finding the net, but they also leave room for at least one side to be shut out. Together with the range of leading scorelines, that points to a match whose result could hinge on whether the expected attacking contribution from each side is reflected on the scoreboard.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

UEFA Nations League

Denmark vs Portugal

Thu, Oct 1 · 2:45 PM ET · Parken Stadium, Copenhagen

Goalorithm's model

Denmark
27.3%
Draw
25.9%
Portugal
46.7%
Over 2.5 goals
52.4%
Both teams score
54.7%

Likeliest scores

  • 1–1 11.3%
  • 0–0 9.9%
  • 0–1 9.5%

Bookmakers, margin removed

Denmark 27.6% · Draw 25.7% · Portugal 46.7%

Open the Match Center

SoccerPreview· Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen Prediction & Preview (October 9)

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Fri, Oct 9 · 2:30 PM ET

SoccerPreview· Ligue 1

Lens vs Lyon Prediction & Preview (October 9)

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