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Match analysis · UEFA Nations League

Research workspace

Denmark 2-4 Portugal: Match Analysis & Model Review

Denmark 2-4 Portugal in the UEFA Nations League, Thursday, October 1: the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 1, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Denmark were beaten 2-4 by Portugal in the UEFA Nations League on Thursday, October 1, with a 4-2 win for Portugal over Denmark. The half-time score was 1-2, and the match finished with six goals in all. Denmark scored two goals, while Portugal scored four goals.

The numbers

The shot totals were 5 for Denmark and 10 for Portugal; the shots-on-target figures were 2 and 5, respectively. Those figures set out the volume of attempts and how many were on target, without revealing the detail of each chance or when it arose. The match ended with Portugal scoring four goals, a total that sits alongside the recorded attempts and target figures.

Possession was 52% for Denmark and 48% for Portugal. The corner count was 2 for Denmark and 3 for Portugal, while the save totals were 3 and 1. Together, those measures sketch the teams' share of the ball, corner opportunities and goalkeeping workload. They do not provide a sequence of the match, but they give a statistical frame for the final score. The figures show that possession was not the only measure on the page: shots, shots on target, corners and saves all form part of the match record.

Standout performers

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M. Damsgaard was Denmark's best-rated player, receiving 7.5 and recording 1 goal. That was the leading individual rating for Denmark; the goal is the contribution noted alongside it. The rating gives a measure of his performance in a match that ended in defeat for his side, while the recorded line identifies his direct return.

For Portugal, Gonçalo Ramos had the side's best rating, 8.6, with 1 goal and 1 assist. His goal and assist stand out in the available match record, and the rating marks him as Portugal's top-rated performer. The figures do not specify when either contribution came, so the scoreline and individual returns are the clearest account of the impact recorded here.

How the model called it

Goalorithm's pre-match probabilities are estimates. Before kickoff, the model gave Denmark a win probability of 26.3%, a draw probability of 25.8% and a Portugal win probability of 47.9%. Its most likely outcome was Portugal to win, with the model giving that outcome 47.9%.

The final result matched the model's call: the model's most likely outcome happened. The pre-match view pointed to a Portugal win, and that was the outcome recorded at full time. The probabilities describe the model's assessment before play; the scoreline and match statistics show what followed.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

UEFA Nations League

Denmark vs Portugal

Thu, Oct 1 · 2:45 PM ET · Parken Stadium

Full time

2–4

Half-time 1–2

The model before the game

Denmark
26.3%
Draw
25.8%
Portugal
47.9%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

The numbers

DenmarkStatisticPortugal
3saves1
5shots10
2corners3
52%possession48%
2shots on target5
Open the Match Center

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