Published September 29, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Curaçao 1–0 Trinidad and Tobago. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Curaçao host Trinidad and Tobago in the CONCACAF Nations League on Thursday, October 1 at 6:00 p.m. ET, with the model’s outlook pointing to a game in which Curaçao are favoured and a lower-scoring outcome has the stronger support. The fixture is at Ergilio Hato Stadium, Willemstad.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model’s likeliest outcome is a Curaçao win (54.1%), then a draw (25.8%), then a Trinidad and Tobago win (20.1%). That puts a Curaçao win at the front of its forecast, while a draw and a Trinidad and Tobago win remain part of the model’s picture of the match.
The goals projection leans towards under 2.5 goals: the model gives over 2.5 goals at 43.5% and under 2.5 goals at 56.5%. Its expected-goals figures are Curaçao 1.6 and Trinidad and Tobago 0.7, a projection that assigns more attacking output to the hosts without ruling out a contribution from the visitors.
For both teams to score, the model gives 43.3%; for at least one side to fail to score, it gives 56.7%. The likeliest exact scorelines are 1-0 (16.1%), 0-0 (12.5%) and 2-0 (11.8%). Those are individual score predictions, not a guarantee of how the match will unfold.
The bookmakers’ margin-removed probabilities also put Curaçao first, with the outcomes ordered as a Curaçao win (53.7%), then a draw (25.5%), then a Trinidad and Tobago win (20.8%). The model gives a Curaçao win 54.1%, in line with the bookmakers' 53.7%.