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Match analysis · CONCACAF Nations League

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Curaçao 1-0 Trinidad and Tobago: Match Analysis & Model Review

Curaçao 1-0 Trinidad and Tobago in the CONCACAF Nations League, Thursday, October 1: the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 1, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Curaçao recorded a 1-0 win for Curaçao over Trinidad and Tobago in the CONCACAF Nations League on Thursday, October 1, after the teams reached half-time at 0-0. The scoring was limited to one goal for Curaçao and no goals for Trinidad and Tobago, with one goal in all. The result settled a match in which the possession share favoured Trinidad and Tobago, while Curaçao registered more attempts and more efforts on target.

The figures point to a clear distinction between control of the ball and the attempts recorded. Trinidad and Tobago held 59% possession, against 41% for Curaçao, but Curaçao led the shot counts and the corner count. That contrast is the central statistical feature of the match: the side with less possession finished with the win, while the side with more possession did not score.

How it unfolded

The teams went in level at 0-0; Curaçao then finished the match with one goal, and Trinidad and Tobago with no goals. The available score details establish the final scoring outcome but do not give the timing of the goal, so there is no basis for placing it at a particular point in the second half. Curaçao's goal proved decisive in the final score of 1-0.

The numbers

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Curaçao recorded 6 shots and 4 on target. Trinidad and Tobago had 2 shots, with 1 on target. The gap in attempts and efforts on target gives context to the scoreline without establishing how the individual attempts arose or how dangerous they were.

Curaçao won 3 corners; Trinidad and Tobago had 0. The saves count was 1 for Curaçao and 4 for Trinidad and Tobago. Read alongside the shot figures, those totals show the different volumes of work recorded for each goalkeeper, without identifying particular saves or chances. Possession, corners, shots and saves describe separate parts of the contest; none changes the straightforward outcome shown by the final score.

How the model called it

Goalorithm's pre-match probabilities are estimates. Before kickoff, the model gave Curaçao a 61% chance of winning, put the draw at 22.4%, and gave Trinidad and Tobago a 16.7% chance. Its stated pre-match favourite was Curaçao to win.

The model gave the actual result 61%, and the model's most likely outcome happened. The final score 1-0 was the model's 1st-likeliest score. In this case, the model's expectation about the match outcome aligned with what happened on the pitch; its score assessment also identified the eventual scoreline as its leading exact-score call.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

CONCACAF Nations League

Curaçao vs Trinidad and Tobago

Thu, Oct 1 · 6:00 PM ET · Ergilio Hato Stadium

Full time

1–0

Half-time 0–0

The model before the game

Curaçao
61%
Draw
22.4%
Trinidad and Tobago
16.7%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

The numbers

CuraçaoStatisticTrinidad and Tobago
1saves4
6shots2
3corners0
41%possession59%
4shots on target1
Open the Match Center

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