Published September 27, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Curaçao 6–1 Nicaragua. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Curaçao host Nicaragua in the CONCACAF Nations League on Sunday, September 27, with kick-off set for 8:00 p.m. ET. Goalorithm’s model points to a Curaçao win, but its expected-goals projection and score forecast leave room for a close contest rather than a decisive margin.
What the model expects
The probabilities are estimates. The model’s outcomes from likeliest down are a Curaçao win (64.9%), then a draw (21%), then a Nicaragua win (14.1%), and its stated lean is Curaçao to win. That makes a Curaçao win the central call, while the draw remains a substantial alternative in the forecast and the model also allows for a Nicaragua victory. The probabilities describe the model’s view of the match, not certainty about how it will unfold.
The goals outlook is more restrained: the model gives under 2.5 goals at 54.4% and over 2.5 goals at 45.6%. It has both teams scoring at 49.1%, while the chance that at least one side fails to score is 50.9%. The latter covers any match in which one team does not score; it is not limited to a goalless draw. Together, those figures point to a game where a clean sheet is a live possibility, even though the model does not rule out goals at both ends.
Expected goals are 1.5 for Curaçao and 0.9 for Nicaragua. The exact-score list starts with 1-0 at 13.6%, followed by 0-0 at 11.1% and 1-1 at 10.4%. The leading score is a narrow Curaçao win, but the other prominent scorelines include both a stalemate without goals and a draw with each side scoring. The spread of those outcomes gives a more nuanced picture than the match lean alone: the model favours Curaçao, while its score projections still encompass different ways the game could remain level.