Published October 22, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Crystal Palace host Newcastle in the Premier League on Sunday, October 25, with kick-off at 10:00 a.m. ET. The model's outcomes are a Newcastle win (37.4%), then a Crystal Palace win (36.4%), then a draw (26.2%), while its goals outlook points towards an open contest.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model's outcomes, from likeliest down, are a Newcastle win (37.4%), then a Crystal Palace win (36.4%), then a draw (26.2%). Its likeliest result is a Newcastle win; the draw and a Crystal Palace win remain part of a close spread of possible outcomes.
The goals forecast is over 2.5 goals at 75.8%, against under 2.5 goals at 24.2%, and the model's lean is over 2.5 goals. It gives both teams a chance of scoring at 74.3%; the chance that at least one side fails to score is 25.7%. Expected goals are 2.2 for Crystal Palace and 1.9 for Newcastle, pointing to opportunities for both sides rather than a one-sided scoring projection.
The likeliest exact score is 1-1 (8.5%), followed by 2-1 (7.5%) and 2-2 (6.8%). The leading scorelines include drawn results and a Crystal Palace win. Each suggests goals at both ends.
Form and standings
Crystal Palace arrive after a 5-0 away defeat to Brighton on October 18. In their recent run, they have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats and scored 8 goals and 11 conceded. Their sequence is LWDLW, listed from most recent first; the latest result is a heavy defeat within that mixed set of results.