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Preview · UEFA Nations League

Research workspace

Croatia vs England Prediction & Preview (October 3)

Croatia vs England in the UEFA Nations League, Saturday, October 3. Goalorithm's model makes England win the most likely result at 50.1%. The table, head-to-head and the likeliest scores.

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Published September 28, 2026 · Updated October 2, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Full time: Croatia 0–7 England. Read the match analysis →

Preview

Croatia host England in the UEFA Nations League on Saturday, October 3 at 12:00 p.m. ET. The table has England above Croatia on the same points total, while Goalorithm’s model makes an England win the likeliest result. The match is at Stadion Rujevica, Rijeka.

What the model expects

The outcome probabilities are estimates. The model’s order is an England win (50.1%), then a draw (25.1%), then a Croatia win (24.8%). Its expected-goals figures are Croatia 1.2 and England 1.8, projecting a separate goals total for each side without settling the exact score.

The model puts over 2.5 goals at 57.2% and under 2.5 goals at 42.8%. It gives both teams scoring 58%, while at least one side failing to score is put at 42%. Its leading exact-score projections are 1-1 (11.1%), 1-2 (9.1%) and 0-1 (8.5%). The top score projection is a draw, with two possible England wins also among the leading scorelines. The match probabilities and score projections describe different possible outcomes; none of the listed exact scores accounts for the whole outcome picture.

Form and standings

More soccer news

All news →

SoccerPreview· Primeira Liga

Moreirense vs GIL Vicente Prediction & Preview (October 9)

Moreirense vs GIL Vicente in Primeira Liga, Friday, October 9. Goalorithm's model makes GIL Vicente win the most likely result at 37.5%. Form, the table, head-to-head and the likeliest scores.

Fri, Oct 9 · 1:45 PM ET

SoccerPreview· Eredivisie

PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen Prediction & Preview (October 9)

PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen in Eredivisie, Friday, October 9. Goalorithm's model makes PSV Eindhoven win the most likely result at 72.7%. Form, the table, team news, head-to-head and the likeliest scores.

Fri, Oct 9 · 2:00 PM ET

Matches
Predictions
My Picks

Croatia are 3rd in League A - Group C with 3 points from 2 games; England are 2nd in League A - Group C with 3 points from 2 games. England sit above Croatia on the same points. Both sides therefore arrive with the same points total, though they occupy different places in the group. The standings give the fixture a direct bearing on the current group picture, while the model’s outcome assessment points towards England.

Team news

No team news is on file yet, and line-ups are not announced.

Head to head

Across the last 5 meetings, Croatia won 1, England won 3 and 1 was drawn. The most recent meeting was England 4-2 Croatia (June 2026), a result that adds a recent reference point to a record containing wins for both sides and a draw. The overall record gives neither team an unbroken run of victories across those meetings.

What to watch

The bookmakers’ implied outcome order is an England win (53%), then a draw (23.6%), then a Croatia win (23.4%). The model gives an England win 50.1%, below the bookmakers' 53%. Both assessments put England at the top of their outcome order, while the model’s estimate for that outcome is below the bookmakers’ implied figure. The gap is a difference in assessment, not a guarantee about how the match will unfold.

The model’s scoring outlook leaves room for goals from both teams as well as a blank for at least one side. Its expected-goals figures and exact-score projections offer two different ways to read that outlook: the former give each team a projected total, while the latter identify individual scorelines. For Croatia and England, the fixture also comes against the backdrop of a table in which they share a points total but hold different positions.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

UEFA Nations League

Croatia vs England

Sat, Oct 3 · 12:00 PM ET · Stadion Rujevica, Rijeka

Goalorithm's model

Croatia
24.8%
Draw
25.1%
England
50.1%
Over 2.5 goals
57.3%
Both teams score
58%

Likeliest scores

  • 1–1 11.1%
  • 1–2 9.1%
  • 0–1 8.5%

Bookmakers, margin removed

Croatia 23.4% · Draw 23.6% · England 53%

Open the Match Center

SoccerPreview· Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen Prediction & Preview (October 9)

Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen in Bundesliga, Friday, October 9. Goalorithm's model makes Borussia Dortmund win the most likely result at 68.8%. Form, the table, team news, head-to-head and the likeliest scores.

Fri, Oct 9 · 2:30 PM ET

SoccerPreview· Ligue 1

Lens vs Lyon Prediction & Preview (October 9)

Lens vs Lyon in Ligue 1, Friday, October 9. Goalorithm's model makes Lens win the most likely result at 37.4%. Form, the table, team news, head-to-head and the likeliest scores.

Fri, Oct 9 · 2:45 PM ET