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Match analysis · UEFA Nations League

Research workspace

Croatia 0-7 England: Match Analysis & Model Review

Croatia 0-7 England in the UEFA Nations League, Saturday, October 3: the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 3, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

England beat Croatia 0-7 in the UEFA Nations League on Saturday, October 3, after reaching half-time at 0-4. Croatia finished without a goal, while England scored seven goals; the result was a 7-0 win for England over Croatia.

The scoreline was accompanied by a substantial gap in possession and attacking output. The match record also shows Croatia without a shot or corner, while England registered attempts on target and corners.

The numbers

Croatia had 0 shots, with 0 on target. England recorded 6 shots and 5 on target. Those figures show that Croatia did not test the goalkeeper with a shot, while England put most of its recorded attempts on target. The scoring totals were no goals for Croatia and seven goals for England, making seven goals overall.

Possession was 24% for Croatia and 76% for England. That division of the ball gives the statistical context for the teams’ contrasting shot totals: Croatia had no recorded attempt, while England produced the match’s attempts on target. Possession alone does not describe every attack, but here it sits alongside a clear difference in the recorded attacking output.

The corner count was 0 for Croatia and 3 for England. Croatia made 3 saves, while England made 0. These figures add the set-piece and goalkeeping details to a match record already marked by Croatia’s lack of shots and England’s scoring return. They describe separate parts of the contest: corners, saves, attempts, possession and goals, rather than offering a different account of the final result.

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How the model called it

Before kick-off, Goalorithm’s model gave Croatia a win probability of 22%, a draw 24.6% and England a win 53.4%. These probabilities are estimates. The model’s most likely outcome was England to win, with the actual outcome assigned 53.4%.

The model’s pre-match view matched the result: the model's most likely outcome happened. Its forecast concerned the outcome probabilities, not the precise scoreline. The match ended with England winning by 0-7, while the model’s call was that England to win was the likeliest outcome before play began.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

UEFA Nations League

Croatia vs England

Sat, Oct 3 · 12:00 PM ET · Stadion Rujevica

Full time

0–7

Half-time 0–4

The model before the game

Croatia
22%
Draw
24.6%
England
53.4%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

The numbers

CroatiaStatisticEngland
3saves0
0shots6
0corners3
24%possession76%
0shots on target5
Open the Match Center

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