Published September 28, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Comoros 1–0 Namibia. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Comoros host Namibia in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification on Tuesday, September 29 at 7:00 a.m. ET. Goalorithm’s model makes a Comoros win the likeliest result, with its goals forecast leaning towards a lower-scoring match. The fixture is at Stade omnisports de Malouzini, Moroni.
What the model expects
The model’s outcomes from likeliest down are a Comoros win (46.6%), then a draw (30.5%), then a Namibia win (23%). These probabilities are estimates. Its likeliest result is a Comoros win, while the forecast also assigns substantial probabilities to a draw and a Namibia win. The comparison with bookmaker prices is summarised by the model’s assessment: the model gives a Comoros win 46.6%, above the bookmakers' 45.4%.
The expected-goals figures are Comoros 1.2 and Namibia 0.6. The model’s goals figures are over 2.5 goals at 29.5% and under 2.5 goals at 70.5%, with under 2.5 goals as its direction for the match. Those projections point to a forecast centred on limited scoring, rather than a high total. They describe the model’s expectation, not a certainty about how the game will unfold.
The leading exact-score forecasts are 1-0 (18.5%), 0-0 (18%) and 2-0 (11.2%). The model also gives both teams a scoring probability of 33.9%; its figure for at least one side failing to score is 66.1%. The latter includes matches in which one team scores and the other does not, as well as a goalless draw. Together, the score and goals projections set out a low-scoring picture in which a Comoros win and a draw both feature among the model’s prominent outcomes.