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Match analysis · Major League Soccer

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CF Montreal 0-3 Atlanta United FC: Match Analysis & Model Review

CF Montreal 0-3 Atlanta United FC in Major League Soccer, Wednesday, October 14: how the goals came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 15, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

CF Montreal 0-3 Atlanta United FC in Major League Soccer on Wednesday, October 14, with Miguel Almirón, Giuliano Galoppo and Breel Embolo on the scoresheet. The teams went in at 0-2, and Embolo completed Atlanta’s scoring after the interval. Only Atlanta United FC ever led, with Atlanta reaching a three-goal lead at 0-3.

How it unfolded

Miguel Almirón put Atlanta United FC ahead in the 22nd minute, making it 0-1. Giuliano Galoppo scored in the 41st minute to make it 0-2 before half-time. Breel Embolo struck in the 60th minute, setting the final score at 0-3.

The numbers

The expected-goals figures were 0.18 for CF Montreal and 1.45 for Atlanta United FC. CF Montreal had 3 shots, with 1 on target; Atlanta recorded 12 attempts and 4 on target. The figures point to a match in which Atlanta generated the clearer scoring threat, while CF Montreal’s attempts produced little expected danger.

Possession was 57% for CF Montreal and 43% for Atlanta. The teams won 6 and 5 corners respectively, and the saves count was 2 for CF Montreal and 1 for Atlanta. Atlanta’s three goals and Montreal’s no goals made three goals in all. The possession share and corner count offer a different view of the contest from the shots and expected goals: Montreal had more of the ball, but Atlanta’s attacking returns shaped the result.

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Standout performers

Giuliano Galoppo was Atlanta United FC’s best-rated player, earning 8.2 and scoring 1 goal. A. Sánchez was CF Montreal’s best-rated player, with a rating of 6.5. Galoppo’s contribution combined his goal with the strongest rating recorded for either team.

How the model called it

Goalorithm’s pre-match probabilities are estimates. The model gave CF Montreal a win probability of 38.7%, a draw probability of 26.2%, and Atlanta United FC a win probability of 35.1%. Its most likely outcome was CF Montreal to win, and it assigned the actual result a probability of 35.1%. The result went against the model's most likely outcome.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Major League Soccer

CF Montreal vs Atlanta United FC

Wed, Oct 14 · 7:30 PM ET · Saputo Stadium

Full time

0–3

Half-time 0–2

  • 22'Miguel Almirón0–1
  • 41'Giuliano Galoppo0–2
  • 60'Breel Embolo0–3

The model before the game

CF Montreal
38.7%
Draw
26.3%
Atlanta United FC
35.1%

The result went against the model's most likely outcome.

The numbers

CF MontrealStatisticAtlanta United FC
2saves1
3shots12
6corners5
57%possession43%
0.18expected goals1.45
1shots on target4
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