Published September 27, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Central African Republic 0–1 Burkina Faso. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Central African Republic host Burkina Faso in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification on Monday, September 28 at 12:00 p.m. ET, with the model pointing towards the visitors. The game is scheduled for Stade Larbi Zaouli, Casablanca. These probabilities are estimates, and the model’s likeliest result is a Burkina Faso win.
What the model expects
The model’s outcomes from likeliest down are a Burkina Faso win (68.6%), then a draw (21.3%), then a Central African Republic win (10.1%). Its expected-goals projection is 0.4 for Central African Republic and 1.9 for Burkina Faso, a forecast that puts the larger attacking return with Burkina Faso.
The likeliest exact score is 0-1 at 19.4%, followed by 0-2 at 17.1% and 0-0 at 12.2%. The model gives under 2.5 goals at 58.6% and over 2.5 goals at 41.4%; it has both teams scoring at 28.7%, while at least one side fails to score at 71.3%. Its lean is Burkina Faso to win. These figures describe separate parts of the forecast: the likely result, projected goals and possible score patterns.