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Match analysis · Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

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Central African Republic 0-1 Burkina Faso: Match Analysis & Model Review

Central African Republic 0-1 Burkina Faso in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification, Monday, September 28: how the goal came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published September 28, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Burkina Faso beat Central African Republic 0-1 in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification, with the sides level at half-time. A. Camara scored the only goal, giving Burkina Faso a result that had been the model’s likeliest outcome before kick-off.

The match was settled after a goalless first half. Central African Republic did not score, and Burkina Faso’s goal arrived in the 60th minute; the final score was a 1-0 win for Burkina Faso over Central African Republic.

How it unfolded

The teams went in at 0-0. In the 60th minute, Aboubacar Sidiki Camara scored for Burkina Faso to make it 0-1. Only Burkina Faso ever led, and the score remained unchanged after the goal.

The numbers

Burkina Faso had 11 shots, with 2 on target. Central African Republic recorded 8 shots and 1 on target. Neither side produced a high volume of shots on target. Possession was 53% for Burkina Faso and 47% for Central African Republic.

The corner count was Central African Republic 7 and Burkina Faso 5; the save totals were Central African Republic 1 and Burkina Faso 2. The match finished with one goal, comprising no goals for Central African Republic and one goal for Burkina Faso. Those figures fit the narrow scoreline: 0-1, and neither side added to the tally after the breakthrough.

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Standout performers

F. Yangao was Central African Republic’s best-rated player, with a rating of 7.0. For Burkina Faso, A. Camara was the best-rated player, with a rating of 8.0 and 1 goal. His goal was the decisive contribution in the match, putting Burkina Faso ahead and accounting for the final margin.

How the model called it

Goalorithm’s pre-match probabilities are estimates. The model gave Central African Republic a win probability of 21.1%, a draw probability of 20.8%, and Burkina Faso a win probability of 58.2%. Its likeliest outcome was Burkina Faso to win, with that result assigned 58.2%.

The model’s most likely outcome happened. The final score, 0-1, was the model's 1st-likeliest score; the result therefore matched the model’s leading exact-score call as well as its pre-match outcome pick.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

Central African Republic vs Burkina Faso

Mon, Sep 28 · 12:00 PM ET · Larbi Zaouli Stadium

Full time

0–1

Half-time 0–0

  • 60'Aboubacar Sidiki Camara0–1

The model before the game

Central African Republic
21.1%
Draw
20.8%
Burkina Faso
58.2%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

The numbers

Central African RepublicStatisticBurkina Faso
1saves2
8shots11
7corners5
47%possession53%
1shots on target2
Open the Match Center

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