Published September 30, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Cayman Islands 0–3 Puerto Rico. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Cayman Islands host Puerto Rico in the CONCACAF Nations League on Thursday, October 1 at 8:00 p.m. ET, with the model pointing firmly towards an away win. The match is at Estadio Centroamericano de Mayaguez, Mayaguez; the model’s expected-goals figures and score projections give a clear sense of the contest it anticipates.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model’s outcomes, from likeliest down, are a Puerto Rico win (85.3%), then a draw (10.2%), then a Cayman Islands win (4.5%), making a Puerto Rico win its likeliest result. Its goal projections are over 2.5 goals at 64% and under 2.5 goals at 36%, while its view on both teams scoring is 42%; it gives 58% to at least one side failing to score, not to a goalless draw.
Expected goals are 0.6 for Cayman Islands and 2.6 for Puerto Rico. The leading score predictions, with Cayman Islands listed first, are 0-2 (13.7%), 0-1 (11.8%) and 0-3 (11.4%). The model’s lean is Puerto Rico to win.
The bookmakers’ margin-removed prices imply a Puerto Rico win (87.4%), then a draw (8.7%), then a Cayman Islands win (3.9%). The model gives a Puerto Rico win 85.3%, below the bookmakers’ 87.4%. That is a difference in degree, not direction: both sets of figures make an away win the leading outcome.