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Match analysis · Championship

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Burnley 1-2 Wolves: Match Analysis & Model Review

Burnley 1-2 Wolves in the Championship, Friday, October 16: how the goals came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 16, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Wolves beat Burnley 1-2 in the Championship on Friday, October 16, with a 2-1 win for Wolves over Burnley. The sides were level at half-time, 1-1, after Burnley had taken the lead and Wolves had equalised. Wolves scored again after the break to secure the win. The match was played at Turf Moor.

How it unfolded

Jamie Vardy scored for Burnley in the 20th minute, putting Burnley ahead at 1-0. Fer López levelled for Wolves in the 39th minute, making it 1-1 before the interval. In the 72nd minute, Tawanda Chirewa scored for Wolves to make it 1-2. The game had a shifting balance: both sides led at some point; the lead changed hands once; the score was levelled once.

The numbers

Burnley recorded 15 shots, including 4 on target. Wolves had 20 shots, with 8 on target. The expected-goals figures were 1.04 for Burnley and 1.85 for Wolves. Possession was 47% for Burnley and 53% for Wolves.

The corner count was 3 for Burnley and 6 for Wolves. The goalkeepers made 5 saves for Burnley and 3 for Wolves. The match finished with Burnley scoring one goal and Wolves scoring two goals, making three goals overall. Those figures describe a match in which both teams scored before the interval, then Wolves added the goal that settled the contest.

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Standout performers

Fer López was Wolves' best-rated player, with a rating of 7.8 and 1 goal. He also scored the equaliser in the first half. Burnley's best-rated player was J. Bruun Larsen, rated 7.7 with 1 assist. The two players' contributions were recorded in different forms: a goal for Fer López and an assist for J. Bruun Larsen.

How the model called it

Before kick-off, Goalorithm's model gave Burnley a win probability of 29.6%, a draw probability of 26.8% and a Wolves win probability of 43.6%. These probabilities are estimates. The model's most likely outcome was Wolves to win, with the actual result assigned 43.6%. The model's most likely outcome happened.

The exact score was the model's 2nd-likeliest score. The model's outcome call and its exact-score assessment are distinct: the former identifies the most likely result category, while the latter places the final score within the model's score ranking.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Championship

Burnley vs Wolves

Fri, Oct 16 · 3:00 PM ET · Turf Moor

Full time

1–2

Half-time 1–1

  • 20'Jamie Vardy1–0
  • 39'Fer López1–1
  • 72'Tawanda Chirewa1–2

The model before the game

Burnley
29.6%
Draw
26.8%
Wolves
43.6%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

The numbers

BurnleyStatisticWolves
5saves3
15shots20
3corners6
47%possession53%
1.04expected goals1.85
4shots on target8
Open the Match Center

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