Published October 15, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Millwall host Lincoln in the Championship on Saturday, October 17 at 7:30 a.m. ET. Both arrive after defeats, and the model’s likeliest overall result is a Millwall win.
What the model expects
The probabilities are estimates. The model’s outcomes, from likeliest down, are a Millwall win (50.5%), then a draw (25.8%), then a Lincoln win (23.7%). Its expected-goals figures are Millwall 1.4 and Lincoln 1.1; its listed scores are 1-1 (13.4%), 0-0 (10.5%) and 1-0 (9.9%).
The goals forecast gives under 2.5 goals at 53.9%, with over 2.5 goals at 46.1% also in its assessment. The model gives both teams scoring 50.6%, while its figure for at least one side failing to score is 49.4%. On the match outcome, the model gives a Millwall win 50.5%, below the bookmakers' 55.5%.
Form and standings
Millwall’s recent sequence is LWDDL: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats, with 6 goals scored and 8 conceded. Their latest result was a 1-0 home defeat to Swansea on October 13. Lincoln’s sequence is LLLWW: 2 wins and 3 defeats, with 3 goals scored and 11 conceded. Their most recent match was a 6-0 home defeat to West Ham on October 14; they are also on 3 defeats in a row.
Millwall sit 11th in Championship with 14 points from 10 games, while Lincoln sit 18th in Championship with 11 points from 10 games. In the table, Millwall sit above Lincoln. The latest results give each side a clear immediate backdrop: Millwall come from a defeat, while Lincoln arrive after a heavy loss and a run of defeats. The form records and goals provide further context for a meeting in which the model expects a close scoring profile, rather than a forecast of a wide gap.