Published October 15, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Derby host Stoke City in the Championship on Saturday, October 17 at 10:00 a.m. ET. The fixture brings together a Derby side without a win in their last 5 and a Stoke City side coming off a defeat, with the model’s outcome order placing a Stoke City win first.
What the model expects
Goalorithm’s probabilities are estimates. The model’s outcome order is a Stoke City win (39.7%), then a Derby win (32.6%), then a draw (27.8%). Its expected-goals figures are Derby 1.5 and Stoke City 1.6, giving a projected scoring contribution for each side without settling the result in advance.
The model expects over 2.5 goals at 57.4% and gives both teams to score 60%; it also assigns 40% to at least one side failing to score. Its leading exact-score call is 1-1 at 11.9%, with 1-2 at 8.2% and 2-1 at 7.7% also among its likeliest scores. The projected scores cover a draw and a win for either side, while the goals and scoring probabilities point to the possibility of action at both ends.
The bookmakers’ outcome order is a Derby win (36.7%), then a Stoke City win (36%), then a draw (27.4%). On the visitors’ chances, the model gives a Stoke City win 39.7%, above the bookmakers' 36%.
Form and standings
Derby have 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5, with 4 goals scored and 9 conceded. Their latest match was a 4-1 away defeat to QPR on October 14, and they are without a win in their last 5. They sit 23rd in Championship with 6 points from 10 games. That recent sequence gives the home side a difficult backdrop for this fixture, with the latest result adding to a run without a win.