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Match analysis · UEFA Europa League

Research workspace

Bournemouth 3-0 Sturm Graz: Match Analysis & Model Review

Bournemouth 3-0 Sturm Graz in the UEFA Europa League, Thursday, October 15: how the goals came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 15, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Bournemouth beat Sturm Graz in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday, October 15, with a 3-0 win for Bournemouth over Sturm Graz. A goal just before the interval gave Bournemouth the lead, and two more after the break turned that advantage into a three-goal lead at 3-0.

Bournemouth had 62% possession and finished with 2.73 expected goals, while Sturm Graz recorded 38% possession and 0.38 expected goals. The gap in attempts was clear too: Bournemouth took 24 shots to Sturm Graz’s 6, and only Bournemouth ever led.

How it unfolded

Francisco Evanilson put Bournemouth ahead in the 43rd minute, making it 1-0. That was also the half-time score, 1-0, leaving Sturm Graz to chase the game after the interval.

Rayan Vitor Simplício Rocha extended the lead in the 76th minute, making it 2-0. Álvaro Rodríguez completed the scoring from the penalty spot in the 90th minute (+2), securing 3-0.

The numbers

Bournemouth put 8 of its shots on target; Sturm Graz managed 1. The expected-goals figures were 2.73 for Bournemouth and 0.38 for Sturm Graz, while possession stood at 62% and 38% respectively. Those figures accompanied three goals for Bournemouth and no goals for Sturm Graz, with three goals in all.

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Bournemouth won 7 corners and Sturm Graz won 3. In goal, Bournemouth made 1 save, while Sturm Graz made 4 saves. The final margin reflected a match in which Bournemouth generated the greater volume of shots and expected goals, while Sturm Graz finished with no goal.

Standout performers

Evanilson was Bournemouth’s best-rated player, earning 8.2 and scoring 1 goal. His goal opened the scoring in the 43rd minute, giving Bournemouth the advantage before half-time.

For Sturm Graz, J. Gorenc Stankovič was the best-rated player, with a rating of 6.6. The match ended 3-0, with Bournemouth’s three scorers accounting for the goals.

How the model called it

Before kickoff, Goalorithm’s model gave Bournemouth a 79.4% chance of winning, put the draw at 13.4% and gave Sturm Graz a 7.3% chance. These probabilities are estimates. The model’s most likely outcome was Bournemouth to win; it gave the actual result 79.4%, and the model's most likely outcome happened.

The exact score 3-0 was the model's 2nd-likeliest score. The model’s outcome call was borne out on the night, as Bournemouth won without conceding.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

UEFA Europa League

Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz

Thu, Oct 15 · 3:00 PM ET · Vitality Stadium

Full time

3–0

Half-time 1–0

  • 43'Francisco Evanilson1–0
  • 76'Rayan Vitor Simplício Rocha2–0
  • 90'+2Álvaro Rodríguez (penalty)3–0

The model before the game

Bournemouth
79.4%
Draw
13.4%
Sturm Graz
7.3%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

The numbers

BournemouthStatisticSturm Graz
1saves4
24shots6
7corners3
62%possession38%
2.73expected goals0.38
8shots on target1
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