Published September 27, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Bolivia 0–2 Paraguay. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Bolivia host Paraguay in a friendly on Sunday, September 27 at 4:30 p.m. ET, with the model pointing to Paraguay as the side more likely to leave with the win. The fixture is at Audi Field; the numbers also leave room for a draw, while Bolivia’s recent results give them a clear need to halt a difficult run.
Paraguay arrive after a convincing recent result, but the model’s lean is not a prediction of a one-sided scoreline. Its expected-goals figures suggest a modest scoring edge for the visitors, and the most likely scorelines include both a goalless draw and a narrow Paraguay win.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model's likeliest result is a Paraguay win; its full ordering is a Paraguay win (62.1%), then a draw (22.4%), then a Bolivia win (15.5%). Its expected-goals figures are Bolivia 0.9 and Paraguay 1.5, a projection that gives Paraguay the greater share of the scoring expectation without making a high-scoring game the likeliest broad outcome.
The model puts over 2.5 goals at 43.7% and under 2.5 goals at 56.3%. It gives 46.6% to both teams scoring and 53.4% to at least one side failing to score. Those figures frame a match where Paraguay have the stronger win outlook, but a blank at one end remains a plausible part of the picture.
The likeliest exact score is 0-0 (13%), followed by 0-1 (12.4%) and 1-1 (11.6%). The spread across those outcomes cautions against treating the central expectation as a single assured script. The model’s stated lean is Paraguay to win.