Published October 14, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Bodo/Glimt host Borussia Dortmund in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday, October 14, with kick-off at 3:00 p.m. ET. The model’s likeliest result is a Borussia Dortmund win; its expected-goals figures point to a narrow gap between the sides. The venue is Aspmyra Stadion, Hakata.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model’s outcome order is a Borussia Dortmund win (46.2%), then a Bodo/Glimt win (28.9%), then a draw (24.9%). Its likeliest result is a Borussia Dortmund win, but the forecast also assigns a meaningful chance to a Bodo/Glimt win or a draw. The model gives a Borussia Dortmund win 46.2%, above the bookmakers' 43.8%.
The goals projection is under 2.5 goals at 67.7%, rather than over 2.5 goals at 32.3%. Expected goals are 0.9 for Bodo/Glimt and 1.1 for Borussia Dortmund. The model gives both teams scoring 39%, and at least one side failing to score 61%; that latter outcome is not limited to a goalless draw.
The likeliest scores are 0-0 (15.9%), 0-1 (14.1%) and 1-1 (13.3%). They span a scoreless match, a narrow Borussia Dortmund win and a draw with both teams on the scoresheet. The scoreline projections underline that the overall pick does not rule out a restrained or level contest.
Form and standings
Bodo/Glimt come into the fixture with the sequence LWWWD, listed most recent first. Their record across that run is 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, with 12 goals scored and 11 conceded; the latest result was a 5-0 away defeat to Bayern München on September 10. That heavy defeat is the newest entry in a run that also includes wins and a draw.