Published September 28, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Benin 2–0 Mauritania. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Benin host Mauritania in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification on Tuesday, September 29, with kick-off set for 1:00 p.m. ET. The model’s likeliest result is a Benin win, while its goals lean points towards a restrained contest.
The match is scheduled for Stade Olympique Alassane Ouattara, Abidjan. The probabilities are estimates, and the model’s view gives Benin an edge without making the win the only live outcome. The fixture’s central question is whether Benin can turn that possibility into a win, or whether Mauritania can keep the result level or take it.
What the model expects
The model’s outcome order is a Benin win (40.2%), then a draw (31.6%), then a Mauritania win (28.1%). A Benin win is its likeliest single result, but the draw and a Mauritania victory are also part of the forecast. The figures describe a match in which more than one outcome remains in the picture.
The scoring outlook is tilted towards a low total. The model leans under 2.5 goals, with under 2.5 goals at 69.3% and over 2.5 goals at 30.7%. It gives both teams to score 37.6%; the chance that at least one side fails to score is 62.4%. That latter measure includes any result in which one team does not score, not just a goalless draw.
Expected goals are 1.1 for Benin and 0.9 for Mauritania. The leading exact-score possibilities are 0-0 (16.4%), 1-0 (15.2%) and 0-1 (11.7%). The scorelines offer a picture of the forecast’s tight scoring outlook, with a draw and narrow wins among the leading possibilities.