Published September 27, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Belgium 0–1 France. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Belgium host France in the UEFA Nations League on Monday, September 28 at 2:45 p.m. ET. The model makes France the likeliest winner, while the table has Belgium above France on the same points.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model gives Belgium 26.1%, a draw 24.3% and France 49.6%; its likeliest result is a France win. The model’s outcome order is a France win (49.6%), then a Belgium win (26.1%), then a draw (24.3%).
The goals outlook leans towards over 2.5 goals at 60%, with under 2.5 goals at 40% also in the model. Both teams score 60.2%, while the chance that at least one side fails to score is 39.8%. The expected-goals figures are Belgium 1.2 and France 1.9, pointing to a greater expected return for the visitors. The likeliest exact score is 1-1 (10.5%), followed by 1-2 (8%) and 0-1 (7.9%).
The bookmakers’ outcome order is a France win (50.1%), then a Belgium win (26%), then a draw (23.9%); the model gives a France win 49.6%, in line with the bookmakers' 50.1%.
Form and standings
Belgium sit 1st in Group 1 with 3 points from 1 game, while France are 2nd in Group 1 with 3 points from 1 game. Belgium sit above France on the same points. Both sides therefore begin the fixture on the same points total, though Belgium hold the higher listed place in Group 1.