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Match analysis · UEFA Nations League

Research workspace

Belgium 0-1 France: Match Analysis & Model Review

Belgium 0-1 France in the UEFA Nations League, Monday, September 28: how the goal came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published September 28, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

France beat Belgium 0-1 in the UEFA Nations League on Monday, September 28, with Michael Olise scoring the winner in the 88th minute. The sides were level at 0-0 at the break, and only France ever led.

France had 65% possession and produced 18 shots, including 7 on target; Belgium recorded 12 shots and 2 on target. Those figures framed a contest in which the breakthrough came late, and France left with a 1-0 win for France over Belgium.

How it unfolded

Belgium and France reached half-time at 0-0, with neither side on the scoresheet. The decisive moment came in the 88th minute, when Michael Olise scored for France to make it 0-1.

Only France ever led. Belgium could not find an equaliser before the final whistle, so that late strike stood as the match's only goal.

The numbers

The possession split was Belgium 35% and France 65%. Belgium had 12 shots, while France had 18; the shots on target were 2 for Belgium and 7 for France. The figures show the volume of attempts and the share of possession, but the scoreline remained narrow until the closing stages.

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Matches
Predictions
My Picks

Belgium won 2 corners and France won 6. The goalkeepers made 5 saves for Belgium and 2 for France. Belgium finished with no goals, France with one goal, and the match contained one goal.

Standout performers

S. Lammens was Belgium's best-rated player, with a rating of 7.5. France's highest-rated performer was E. Camavinga, rated 7.4.

The ratings identify the standout player for each side without changing the match's defining detail: France's late goal decided a game that had remained level at the interval.

How the model called it

Before kickoff, Goalorithm's model gave Belgium a win probability of 26%, a draw probability of 25.5% and a France win probability of 48.5%. These are estimates. Its most likely outcome was France to win, with the actual result assigned 48.5%; the model's most likely outcome happened.

The final score was the model's 3rd-likeliest score. The model's call concerned the match outcome, while this score ranking describes its view of the exact result. France's win followed the outcome the model had identified as most likely, with the decisive goal arriving late.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

UEFA Nations League

Belgium vs France

Mon, Sep 28 · 2:45 PM ET · Roi Baudouin

Full time

0–1

Half-time 0–0

  • 88'Michael Olise0–1

The model before the game

Belgium
26%
Draw
25.5%
France
48.5%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

The numbers

BelgiumStatisticFrance
5saves2
12shots18
2corners6
35%possession65%
2shots on target7
Open the Match Center

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