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GOALORITHM / FTB

Preview · UEFA Nations League

Research workspace

Belarus vs San Marino Prediction & Preview (October 3)

Belarus vs San Marino in the UEFA Nations League, Saturday, October 3. Goalorithm's model makes Belarus win the most likely result at 82.3%. The table, head-to-head and the likeliest scores.

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Published September 28, 2026 · Updated October 2, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Full time: Belarus 4–0 San Marino. Read the match analysis →

Preview

Belarus host San Marino in the UEFA Nations League on Saturday, October 3, with kick-off at 12:00 p.m. ET. The model points to a Belarus win, while the standings place Belarus above San Marino.

The match will be played at Illovszky Rudolf Stadion, Budapest. The model's forecasts are estimates; its central picture is Belarus scoring more than San Marino, with its leading exact-score forecasts all showing a Belarus victory.

What the model expects

The model's outcomes from likeliest down are a Belarus win (82.3%), then a draw (11.8%), then a San Marino win (5.9%). Its leading result is a Belarus win, and its goal projections are 2.9 for Belarus and 0.7 for San Marino.

The model expects over 2.5 goals at 67.4% and under 2.5 goals at 32.6%. It gives both teams a chance of scoring of 45.7%, while its estimate for at least one side failing to score is 54.3%. These figures leave open the possibility of a match in which San Marino does not find the net.

The likeliest exact score is 2-0 at 11.9%, followed by 3-0 at 10.9% and 1-0 at 8.5%. The model's stated lean is Belarus to win. Against the bookmakers, the model gives a Belarus win 82.3%, below the bookmakers' 87.6%.

Form and standings

More soccer news

All news →

SoccerPreview· Primeira Liga

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Matches
Predictions
My Picks

Belarus are 3rd in League C - Group A with 1 point from 2 games, while San Marino are 4th in League C - Group A with 0 points from 2 games. The table picture is straightforward: Belarus sit above San Marino. The sides arrive with points totals that place them in separate positions in League C - Group A, giving the fixture a clear standings context.

Team news

No team news is on file yet, and line-ups are not announced.

Head to head

Across the last 2 meetings, Belarus won 2, San Marino won 0 and 0 were drawn. The latest meeting was San Marino 0-2 Belarus (November 2018). That result sits within a record in which Belarus have won both meetings, with no draws or San Marino victories. The past meetings provide a concise snapshot of the matchup, while the model's current expectation for this fixture is set out in its forecast.

What to watch

The central question is whether Belarus can turn the model's projected scoring edge into a win. Its leading score forecasts all have Belarus keeping a clean sheet, and the goal estimates also leave room for San Marino to score; the model's figures describe those as possibilities, not certainties.

The goal outlook points towards over 2.5 goals at 67.4%, while the both-teams-to-score estimate leaves a meaningful prospect of one side being shut out. Taken together, the forecast describes a match in which Belarus has the clearest route to the result, with the exact margin less settled by the score predictions.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

UEFA Nations League

Belarus vs San Marino

Sat, Oct 3 · 12:00 PM ET · Illovszky Rudolf Stadion, Budapest

Goalorithm's model

Belarus
82.3%
Draw
11.8%
San Marino
5.9%
Over 2.5 goals
67.4%
Both teams score
45.7%

Likeliest scores

  • 2–0 11.9%
  • 3–0 10.9%
  • 1–0 8.5%

Bookmakers, margin removed

Belarus 87.6% · Draw 8.2% · San Marino 4.2%

Open the Match Center

SoccerPreview· Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen Prediction & Preview (October 9)

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SoccerPreview· Ligue 1

Lens vs Lyon Prediction & Preview (October 9)

Lens vs Lyon in Ligue 1, Friday, October 9. Goalorithm's model makes Lens win the most likely result at 37.4%. Form, the table, team news, head-to-head and the likeliest scores.

Fri, Oct 9 · 2:45 PM ET