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Match analysis · UEFA Nations League

Research workspace

Belarus 4-0 San Marino: Match Analysis & Model Review

Belarus 4-0 San Marino in the UEFA Nations League, Saturday, October 3: the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 3, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Belarus secured a 4-0 win for Belarus over San Marino in the UEFA Nations League on Saturday, October 3, after a goalless first half. The final score was 4-0, with Belarus scoring four goals and San Marino finishing with no goals.

A striking feature of the match is the contrast between the emphatic scoreline and the recorded shot totals: Belarus had 3 shots and San Marino had 1, with neither side registering a shot on target. The result is clear; the available match figures do not describe how the goals were scored.

How it unfolded

The teams reached the interval at 0-0. Belarus then scored four goals after the break to turn the level score into a 4-0 result. The goalscorers and sequence of those goals are not specified.

The numbers

Possession was 66% for Belarus and 34% for San Marino. That split shows Belarus had more of the ball, while the shot count remained low for both sides. Possession and attempts measure different parts of a match: the former indicates which team held the ball more often, while the latter records efforts to score. Here, those measures sit alongside a result that gave Belarus a substantial margin.

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The shots-on-target figures were 0 for Belarus and 0 for San Marino. The corner count was 2 for Belarus and 0 for San Marino. Together, the figures offer a limited account of attacking activity, but they do not supply the detail of the goals or the chances behind them. The final score remains the defining fact of the match, while the possession, shooting and corner totals describe different elements of the contest rather than a complete account of how it was won.

How the model called it

Goalorithm's pre-match probabilities are estimates. Before kickoff, the model gave Belarus an 84.7% chance of winning, assigned 10.7% to a draw and gave San Marino a 4.6% chance. Its most likely outcome was Belarus to win.

The model gave the actual result a probability of 84.7%; the model's most likely outcome happened. The forecast therefore identified the winning side, and the match ended with the outcome the model had considered most likely. That call was made before play began. The final score supplies the result, while the model's probability expresses its pre-match assessment rather than a certainty about how the match would unfold.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

UEFA Nations League

Belarus vs San Marino

Sat, Oct 3 · 12:00 PM ET · Illovszky Rudolf Stadion

Full time

4–0

Half-time 0–0

The model before the game

Belarus
84.7%
Draw
10.7%
San Marino
4.6%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

The numbers

BelarusStatisticSan Marino
3shots1
2corners0
66%possession34%
0shots on target0
Open the Match Center

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