Published October 16, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Bayer Leverkusen host SC Freiburg in Bundesliga on Sunday, October 18, with the visitors sitting above them in the table. The model identifies a Bayer Leverkusen win, but SC Freiburg arrive unbeaten in their last 5 and with a strong recent record. The match is at BayArena, Bayer Leverkusen, with kick-off at 9:30 a.m. ET.
Bayer Leverkusen have 10 points from 5 games, while SC Freiburg have 13 points from 5 games. The points and table positions frame a meeting between a side the model favours and the team currently above them.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model gives Bayer Leverkusen 52.5%, a draw 22.1% and SC Freiburg 25.4%. Its likeliest result is a Bayer Leverkusen win.
The projected goals are Bayer Leverkusen 2.2 and SC Freiburg 0.8. The model puts over 2.5 goals at 55.8% and under 2.5 goals at 44.2%; it gives both teams scoring 48.4%, against 51.6% for at least one side failing to score. Its leading exact scores are 2-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (11.3%) and 1-1 (9.2%). The score projections lean toward a Bayer Leverkusen win, while the goal and scoring estimates leave room for different routes to that outcome.
Form and standings
Bayer Leverkusen's recent sequence is WWDWL. They have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, with 14 goals scored and 8 conceded, and are on 2 wins in a row. Their latest outing was a 4-3 away win against FSV Mainz 05 on October 10.