Published September 27, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Azerbaijan 0–0 Liechtenstein. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Azerbaijan host Liechtenstein in the UEFA Nations League on Thursday, October 1 at 12:00 p.m. ET. Goalorithm’s model points towards a home win, while also assigning a substantial share of its outcome estimates to a draw. That gives the fixture a clear central question: can Azerbaijan make its projected advantage count, or will the contest stay close enough for the draw to feature?
What the model expects
The probabilities are estimates. The model orders the outcomes as an Azerbaijan win (62.9%), then a draw (25.1%), then a Liechtenstein win (12%), making an Azerbaijan win its likeliest result. Its stated lean is Azerbaijan to win; the home win is the leading outcome, but the draw remains a meaningful part of the forecast rather than an afterthought.
The goal projections are close: over 2.5 goals at 48.2% and under 2.5 goals at 51.8%. For both teams to score, the model gives 40.6%; its figure for at least one side failing to score is 59.5%. Those are related but distinct forecasts: the latter does not require a goalless draw, and the model’s scoreline possibilities include results in which one side scores without the other replying.
Expected goals are 2 for Azerbaijan and 0.6 for Liechtenstein. That projection gives the hosts the larger expected scoring contribution, while the away figure leaves room for Liechtenstein to get on the scoresheet. The model’s leading exact scores are 1-0 (14.2%), 2-0 (13.7%) and 0-0 (10.9%). A home win and a goalless draw both appear among those possibilities, so the forecast describes a tilt towards Azerbaijan without settling on one exact way the match will unfold.