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Match analysis · UEFA Europa League

Research workspace

AZ Alkmaar 2-1 Hapoel Beer Sheva: Match Analysis & Model Review

AZ Alkmaar 2-1 Hapoel Beer Sheva in the UEFA Europa League, Thursday, October 15: how the goals came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 15, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

AZ Alkmaar beat Hapoel Beer Sheva 2-1 in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday, October 15, with Mexx Meerdink's penalty deciding a match that was level at half-time and again after the visitors' equaliser. Peer Koopmeiners put AZ ahead, Forson Amankwah restored parity, and Meerdink supplied the winning goal.

The scoreline was a 2-1 win for AZ Alkmaar over Hapoel Beer Sheva. Koopmeiners opened the scoring, Amankwah equalised, and Meerdink's penalty settled it. AZ's final goal proved decisive.

How it unfolded

The teams went in at the break with 0-0 on the board. Peer Koopmeiners scored for AZ Alkmaar in the 49th minute, making it 1-0; Forson Amankwah answered for Hapoel Beer Sheva in the 55th minute, bringing the score to 1-1.

Mexx Meerdink converted a penalty for AZ Alkmaar in the 77th minute to make it 2-1. That was the final goal, and the match finished 2-1.

The numbers

AZ Alkmaar recorded 15 shots, including 7 on target, while Hapoel Beer Sheva had 6 shots and 4 on target. The expected-goals figures were 2.65 for AZ Alkmaar and 1.07 for Hapoel Beer Sheva. Those totals offer a measure of the chances created, alongside a contest that ended with three goals.

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Week
Predictions
My Tracker

Possession stood at 58% for AZ Alkmaar and 42% for Hapoel Beer Sheva. The corner count was 5 to 1, and the save figures were 3 for AZ Alkmaar and 5 for Hapoel Beer Sheva. The figures show AZ Alkmaar had more of the ball and more attempts, while both sides recorded shots on target.

Standout performers

P. Koopmeiners was AZ Alkmaar's best-rated player, earning 8.2 and scoring 1 goal. His goal opened the scoring after the interval, putting AZ Alkmaar in front.

A. Forson was Hapoel Beer Sheva's best-rated player, with 7.5 and 1 goal. His equaliser followed AZ Alkmaar's opener and brought the sides level before Meerdink's penalty decided the result.

How the model called it

The model's pre-match probabilities were AZ Alkmaar to win 65.8%, a draw 18.4%, and Hapoel Beer Sheva to win 15.8%. These are estimates. AZ Alkmaar to win was the model's most likely outcome, and the actual result received that same probability from the model.

The model's most likely outcome happened. The final score, 2-1, was the model's 2nd-likeliest score, so the result matched its preferred outcome even though that exact score was not its leading score prediction.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

UEFA Europa League

AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva

Thu, Oct 15 · 12:45 PM ET · AFAS Stadion（Alkmaar）

Full time

2–1

Half-time 0–0

  • 49'Peer Koopmeiners1–0
  • 55'Forson Amankwah1–1
  • 77'Mexx Meerdink (penalty)2–1

The model before the game

AZ Alkmaar
65.8%
Draw
18.4%
Hapoel Beer Sheva
15.8%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

The numbers

AZ AlkmaarStatisticHapoel Beer Sheva
3saves5
15shots6
5corners1
58%possession42%
2.65expected goals1.07
7shots on target4
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