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Match analysis · Major League Soccer

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Atlanta United FC 2-2 New York City FC: Match Analysis & Model Review

Atlanta United FC 2-2 New York City FC in Major League Soccer, Saturday, September 26: how the goals came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published September 27, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Match report

Atlanta United FC and New York City FC shared a 2-2 draw in Major League Soccer on Saturday, September 26, with the match ending 2-2. The score was 1-1 at half-time before both sides found the net again after the interval.

The goals came in a sequence of changing leads and replies. Only New York City FC ever led, twice; the score was levelled twice, and neither side turned its scoring into a winning margin.

How it unfolded

New York City FC went ahead in the 5th minute when Matthew Edwards scored an own goal, making the score 0-1. Atlanta United FC levelled in the 10th minute through Giuliano Galoppo, and the teams reached the interval at 1-1.

New York City FC took the lead again in the 56th minute, with Andrés Perea making it 1-2. Atlanta United FC restored parity in the 74th minute; Ajani Fortune scored to make the final score 2-2.

The numbers

Atlanta United FC registered 5 shots, while New York City FC recorded 6. Shots on target were 3 for Atlanta United FC and 2 for New York City FC. The match finished with two goals for Atlanta United FC and two goals for New York City FC, making four goals overall.

Possession was 41% for Atlanta United FC and 59% for New York City FC. The corner count was 1 for Atlanta United FC and 3 for New York City FC; both teams made 2 saves. The figures accompany a match in which each side scored and the final score was level.

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Standout performers

G. Galoppo was Atlanta United FC’s best-rated player, receiving 7.8 and contributing 1 goal. That contribution came as Atlanta United FC brought the score level in the first half.

For New York City FC, A. Ojeda earned the team’s best rating of 7.7, with 1 assist. The assist came in a match where New York City FC scored twice, but the final score was level.

How the model called it

Goalorithm’s pre-match probabilities are estimates. The model gave Atlanta United FC a 32.5% chance of winning, assigned the draw 26%, and gave New York City FC a 41.5% chance. Its most likely outcome was New York City FC to win.

The model assigned the actual result 26%; the result went against the model's most likely outcome. The final draw was not the model’s selected most likely outcome.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Major League Soccer

Atlanta United FC vs New York City FC

Sat, Sep 26 · 7:30 PM ET · Atlanta Stadium

Full time

2–2

Half-time 1–1

  • 5'Matthew Edwards (own goal)0–1
  • 10'Giuliano Galoppo1–1
  • 56'Andrés Perea1–2
  • 74'Ajani Fortune2–2

The model before the game

Atlanta United FC
32.5%
Draw
26%
New York City FC
41.5%

The result went against the model's most likely outcome.

The numbers

Atlanta United FCStatisticNew York City FC
2saves2
5shots6
1corners3
41%possession59%
3shots on target2
Open the Match Center

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