Published October 23, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Atalanta host Frosinone in Serie A on Sunday, October 25, with the model pointing to a home win but the league table placing the visitors above them. Recent form also gives the fixture a clear contrast: Atalanta arrive after a defeat, while Frosinone’s latest outing was a win.
What the model expects
Goalorithm’s probabilities are estimates. Its outcomes from likeliest down are an Atalanta win (54%), then a Frosinone win (24.5%), then a draw (21.4%), leaving a draw between two sides with a meaningful chance of winning. The model’s goals figures are over 2.5 goals at 51.4% and under 2.5 goals at 48.6%; it gives both teams a chance of scoring at 54.3%, while 45.7% covers the possibility that at least one side fails to score.
Expected goals stand at 1.6 for Atalanta and 1.2 for Frosinone. The likeliest scorelines are 1-0 (13.9%), 0-1 (11.2%) and 2-1 (8.8%). Those projections leave room for either a narrow home result or an away win, with the model’s leading scoreline suggesting a game decided by a single goal.
Form and standings
Atalanta’s sequence across 5 matches is LWLLL. They have 1 win and 4 defeats, with 7 goals scored and 10 conceded; their latest result was a 3-2 away defeat to AC Milan on October 18. The run has included goals at both ends, but the recent defeat keeps attention on whether they can turn their projected edge into a result.
Frosinone’s last 5 matches read WLWDW: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, with 10 goals scored and 8 conceded. Their most recent outing was a 4-2 home win against Sassuolo on October 16. In the table, Frosinone sit above Atalanta. Atalanta sit 10th in Serie A with 9 points from 6 games, while Frosinone sit 5th in Serie A with 13 points from 7 games.