Published October 23, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
AS Roma host Cagliari in Serie A on Tuesday, October 27, with both sides bringing unbeaten runs into the fixture. The model’s likeliest result is an AS Roma win, but its outcome estimates also give Cagliari a substantial share.
The match is at Stadio Olimpico, Rome, with kick-off set for 3:45 p.m. ET. Roma’s latest outing was a 2-0 home win against Genoa on October 17; Cagliari’s most recent result was a 1-1 home draw with Juventus on October 11. Those results frame a meeting between sides arriving in good form and carrying different recent sequences.
What the model expects
The probabilities are estimates. The model gives AS Roma 45.6%, a draw 19.6% and Cagliari 34.8%; its likeliest result is an AS Roma win. Its ordering is an AS Roma win (45.6%), then a Cagliari win (34.8%), then a draw (19.6%).
The expected-goals figures are AS Roma 1.4 and Cagliari 1.1. The model assigns under 2.5 goals at 55.3% to the under-goals outcome and over 2.5 goals at 44.7% to the over-goals outcome. It gives both teams scoring 49.1%, while the probability that at least one side fails to score is 50.9%.
The likeliest exact score is 1-0 at 15.8%. The other listed possibilities are 0-1 at 13% and 1-1 at 8.6%. Together, those forecasts describe several plausible paths: a narrow home win, a narrow away win or a level score.
Form and standings
Roma’s recent sequence is WDDWW, with 8 goals scored and 3 conceded. The latest entry was a 2-0 home win against Genoa on October 17, and the side are unbeaten in their last 5. Cagliari’s sequence is DWWWL, with 5 goals scored and 3 conceded; their latest entry was a 1-1 home draw with Juventus on October 11, and they are unbeaten in their last 4.