Published September 27, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Armenia 2–3 Montenegro. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Armenia host Montenegro in the UEFA Nations League on Monday, September 28 at 12:00 p.m. ET. Both sides have 3 points from 1 game and the table has Armenia above Montenegro, while Goalorithm’s model gives Montenegro the likeliest result. The model’s view is an estimate; its numbers point to a close contest, with a draw also firmly in the picture.
What the model expects
The model gives Armenia 33.2%, a draw 29.2% and Montenegro 37.6%. Its ordering is a Montenegro win (37.6%), then an Armenia win (33.2%), then a draw (29.2%). The model’s likeliest result is a Montenegro win. The expected-goals figures are Armenia 1.1 and Montenegro 1.2, putting the projections close together.
The model’s goals lean is under 2.5 goals. It gives under 2.5 goals at 61.8% and over 2.5 goals at 38.2%, while the chance of both teams scoring is 44.8%; the chance at least one side fails to score is 55.2%. The likeliest exact score is 0-0 at 14.5%, followed by 1-1 at 12.4% and 0-1 at 10.5%. Those are separate scoreline estimates within a forecast that also assigns probability to a draw and to either side winning.
The bookmakers’ outcome ordering is a Montenegro win (37.8%), then an Armenia win (32.1%), then a draw (30.1%). The model gives a Montenegro win 37.6%, in line with the bookmakers’ 37.8%.