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Match analysis · UEFA Nations League

Research workspace

Armenia 2-3 Montenegro: Match Analysis & Model Review

Armenia 2-3 Montenegro in the UEFA Nations League, Monday, September 28: how the goals came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published September 28, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Armenia 2-3 Montenegro in the UEFA Nations League on Monday, September 28, with Montenegro scoring the decisive goal in the 89th minute after Armenia had brought the match level. The result was a 3-2 win for Montenegro over Armenia, following a first half that ended with Armenia 1-2 Montenegro and an equaliser from Armenia after the break.

Armenia had more possession, while Montenegro recorded more shots and corners. Both teams put the same number of efforts on target, but Montenegro’s late goal settled a match in which Armenia twice drew level.

How it unfolded

The opening goal came in the 20th minute, when Erik Piloyan scored an own goal for Montenegro, making it 0-1. Armenia responded through Artur Serobyan in the 34th minute, levelling the score at 1-1. Montenegro moved ahead again when Nikola Krstović scored in the 38th minute, making it 1-2.

At half-time, Armenia were 1-2 behind. Eduard Spertsyan brought the sides level in the 65th minute, making it 2-2. The final goal came in the 89th minute, when Aleksa Latkovic scored for Montenegro to make it 2-3. Only Montenegro ever led, three times; the score was levelled twice.

The numbers

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Matches
Predictions
My Picks

Armenia had 10 shots and Montenegro 12; both sides put 4 efforts on target. Possession was 54% for Armenia and 46% for Montenegro. The figures show more attempts for Montenegro, but no difference in shots on target.

Armenia won 2 corners to Montenegro’s 4. Each team’s goalkeeper made 2 saves. The match finished with two goals for Armenia and three goals for Montenegro, five goals overall. Those figures accompany a close shot-on-target count and a result decided by Montenegro’s goal in the closing stages.

Standout performers

E. Spertsyan was Armenia’s best-rated player, earning 8.2 with 1 goal. His goal levelled the match after half-time, though Armenia were unable to hold on for a point.

For Montenegro, N. Krstović was the best-rated performer, with 7.8 and 1 goal. His goal put Montenegro back in front in the first half, and Montenegro went on to score the winner through Aleksa Latkovic.

How the model called it

Before kick-off, the model’s probabilities were estimates: it gave Armenia a win probability of 35.4%, a draw probability of 28.8% and Montenegro a win probability of 35.9%. The model’s most likely outcome was Montenegro to win, and it assigned the actual result 35.9%. The model's most likely outcome happened.

The call aligned with the final result, though the match remained level after Armenia’s second goal until Montenegro scored again. The model’s pre-match view favoured Montenegro to win, and that was the outcome recorded at the final whistle.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

UEFA Nations League

Armenia vs Montenegro

Mon, Sep 28 · 12:00 PM ET · Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium

Full time

2–3

Half-time 1–2

  • 20'Erik Piloyan (own goal)0–1
  • 34'Artur Serobyan1–1
  • 38'Nikola Krstović1–2
  • 65'Eduard Spertsyan2–2
  • 89'Aleksa Latkovic2–3

The model before the game

Armenia
35.4%
Draw
28.8%
Montenegro
35.9%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

The numbers

ArmeniaStatisticMontenegro
2saves2
10shots12
2corners4
54%possession46%
4shots on target4
Open the Match Center

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