Published September 30, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Anguilla 0–3 Antigua and Barbuda. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Anguilla host Antigua and Barbuda in the CONCACAF Nations League on Thursday, October 1, with kick-off at 7:00 p.m. ET at Sir Vivian Richards Stadium, Antigua. The model’s central call is an Antigua and Barbuda win, and its expected-goals figures also give the visitors the larger attacking projection. The forecast offers a clear direction for the match while allowing for more than one plausible scoreline.
What the model expects
The model’s outcomes, from likeliest down, are an Antigua and Barbuda win (57%), then a draw (24.5%), then an Anguilla win (18.5%). These are estimates. Its expected goals are 0.9 for Anguilla and 1.7 for Antigua and Barbuda, a projection that places more of the expected scoring with Antigua and Barbuda. The likeliest result is an Antigua and Barbuda win, at 57%; the remaining outcome probabilities are 18.5% for a home win and 24.5% for a draw. Together, those figures describe a forecast in which an away win leads the model’s set of outcomes, but a draw and a home win remain possibilities.
The most likely score is 0-1 (13.1%), followed by 0-2 (10.5%) and 1-1 (9.7%). The set includes two scorelines with Anguilla failing to score and one level score, giving the forecast more texture than a single projected result. None of those scorelines is presented as certain; they are the model’s most prominent exact-score possibilities.