Published October 23, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
AC Milan host Bologna in Serie A on Wednesday, October 28 at 1:30 p.m. ET. Goalorithm’s model favours AC Milan, with its expected-goals estimate pointing to more attacking output from the hosts. The central question in the numbers is whether Bologna can make enough of an attacking contribution to alter that outlook.
AC Milan arrive unbeaten in their last 5, while Bologna come in after a 3-1 home defeat to Inter on October 17. The league positions also frame the fixture: AC Milan sit above Bologna.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model’s outcome order is an AC Milan win (63.2%), then a Bologna win (18.6%), then a draw (18.1%). Its likeliest result is an AC Milan win, and its lean is AC Milan to win.
The expected-goals figures are AC Milan 1.7 and Bologna 0.3. The model gives under 2.5 goals at 66.2% and puts the chance of at least one team failing to score at 76.4%. That does not mean a goalless draw is expected; it covers any outcome in which either side finishes without a goal.
The likeliest exact score is 1-0 at 24.1%, followed by 2-0 at 17.8%; 0-0 is the next listed possibility at 11.9%. Those scorelines point to a match in which goals may be limited, with the model expecting AC Milan to supply the decisive attacking return.
Form and standings
AC Milan have 2 wins and 3 draws across their last 5 games, with 10 goals scored and 6 conceded. Their sequence, listed from most recent first, is WDWDD; the latest entry was a 3-2 home win against Atalanta on October 18. They are unbeaten in their last 5 heading into this fixture.