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Match analysis · UEFA Europa League

Research workspace

1899 Hoffenheim 2-3 Beşiktaş: Match Analysis & Model Review

1899 Hoffenheim 2-3 Beşiktaş in the UEFA Europa League, Thursday, October 15: how the goals came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 15, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Beşiktaş beat 1899 Hoffenheim 2-3 in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday, October 15, with all five goals arriving after a goalless first half. Oh Hyeon-gyu scored two goals, and Beşiktaş held a two-goal lead before Koki Machida’s late goal made the finish closer. The scoreline was a 3-2 win for Beşiktaş over 1899 Hoffenheim.

How it unfolded

The sides went into the break at 0-0. Amir Murillo opened the scoring for Beşiktaş in the 60th minute, making it 0-1; Fisnik Asllani levelled for 1899 Hoffenheim in the 68th minute.

Oh Hyeon-gyu put Beşiktaş back in front in the 72nd minute, then scored again in the 79th minute to make it 1-3. That was the visitors’ biggest lead. Koki Machida scored for 1899 Hoffenheim in the 87th minute, but there were no further goals. Only Beşiktaş ever led, twice; the score was levelled once.

The numbers

1899 Hoffenheim had 53% possession and Beşiktaş 47%. The hosts recorded 13 shots, including 3 on target; Beşiktaş had 19, with 5 on target. The expected-goals figures were 1.14 for 1899 Hoffenheim and 3.43 for Beşiktaş.

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Week
Predictions
My Tracker

The corner count was 7 to 5, and the save count was 2 to 1. The match finished with two goals for 1899 Hoffenheim and three goals for Beşiktaş, five goals overall. The visitors’ scoring was spread across Amir Murillo and Oh Hyeon-gyu, who supplied a brace.

Standout performers

Oh Hyeon-Gyu was Beşiktaş’s best-rated player, earning 9.4 for 2 goals and 1 assist. His goals came after the equaliser and gave Beşiktaş the lead again before extending it to 1-3.

F. Asllani was 1899 Hoffenheim’s best-rated player, with 6.9 after 1 goal. His goal brought the score level at 1-1, but Beşiktaş restored its advantage soon afterwards.

How the model called it

Before kickoff, Goalorithm’s model gave 1899 Hoffenheim a win probability of 43.9%, a draw 24.6% and a Beşiktaş win 31.5%. These probabilities are estimates. Its most likely outcome was 1899 Hoffenheim to win, while it gave the actual result a probability of 31.5%; the result went against the model's most likely outcome.

The final score followed a match in which Beşiktaş scored after the break, responded to the hosts’ equaliser, and added a second goal from Oh Hyeon-gyu before 1899 Hoffenheim pulled one back. The result went against the model's most likely outcome, with Beşiktaş taking the points.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

UEFA Europa League

1899 Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş

Thu, Oct 15 · 3:00 PM ET · Prezero Arena

Full time

2–3

Half-time 0–0

  • 60'Amir Murillo0–1
  • 68'Fisnik Asllani1–1
  • 72'Oh Hyeon-gyu1–2
  • 79'Oh Hyeon-gyu1–3
  • 87'Koki Machida2–3

The model before the game

1899 Hoffenheim
43.9%
Draw
24.6%
Beşiktaş
31.5%

The result went against the model's most likely outcome.

The numbers

1899 HoffenheimStatisticBeşiktaş
2saves1
13shots19
7corners5
53%possession47%
1.14expected goals3.43
3shots on target5
Open the Match Center

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