Published October 23, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
1899 Hoffenheim host Bayer Leverkusen in Bundesliga on Sunday, October 25, with kick-off at 10:30 a.m. ET. The model points to an open contest, with goals expected and Bayer Leverkusen its likeliest winner. 1899 Hoffenheim arrive after a 2-1 away win against Borussia Mönchengladbach on October 18, while Bayer Leverkusen come off a 2-1 home win against SC Freiburg on October 18.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model's likeliest result is a Bayer Leverkusen win, and its ordering is a Bayer Leverkusen win (46%), then a 1899 Hoffenheim win (31.1%), then a draw (22.9%). Its expected-goals figures are 2.4 for 1899 Hoffenheim and 2.6 for Bayer Leverkusen, pointing to an attacking contribution from each side.
The goals outlook is clear: the model assigns over 2.5 goals at 86% and under 2.5 goals at 14%, with its stated lean over 2.5 goals. It gives both teams scoring a probability of 83.2%, while the chance that at least one side fails to score is 16.8%. The listed exact-score possibilities are 2-2 at 6.3%, 1-2 at 5.5% and 2-3 at 5.3%.
Form and standings
1899 Hoffenheim's recent sequence is WLLWL, amounting to 2 wins and 3 defeats. They have 9 goals scored and 11 conceded across that spell. Their latest result, a 2-1 away win against Borussia Mönchengladbach on October 18, was a win and offers a positive immediate note within an uneven run.