Published October 22, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
1. FC Köln host FC Schalke 04 in Bundesliga on Saturday, October 24 at 9:30 a.m. ET. Both teams lost their most recent match, and Goalorithm's model gives the hosts the likeliest result, a 1. FC Köln win.
The forecast points to a game with scope for goals: the model's expected-goals figures are 1.9 for 1. FC Köln and 1.2 for FC Schalke 04.
What the model expects
The probabilities are estimates. The model gives 1. FC Köln 46.2%, a draw 24.5% and FC Schalke 04 29.2%. Its likeliest result is a 1. FC Köln win.
The model's goals forecast is over 2.5 goals at 59.8%, against under 2.5 goals at 40.2%. It gives both teams to score 59.7%, while the chance that at least one side fails to score is 40.3%. Its most likely exact score is 1-1 at 10.4%, followed by 2-1 at 9.2% and 1-0 at 8.1%.
Form and standings
Across 5 matches, 1. FC Köln have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats, with 5 goals scored and 9 conceded. Their latest result was a 1-0 away defeat to Eintracht Frankfurt on October 16. The sequence, listed most recent first, is LWLDL.
FC Schalke 04 have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats over 5 matches and 4 goals scored and 4 conceded. Their latest outing was a 1-0 home defeat to FSV Mainz 05 on October 17. They are on 2 defeats in a row; their form sequence, from most recent first, is LLDWD.
1. FC Köln sit 12th in Bundesliga with 7 points from 6 games, while FC Schalke 04 sit 14th in Bundesliga with 5 points from 6 games. In the table, 1. FC Köln sit above FC Schalke 04. Those positions frame a meeting between sides seeking points, with both coming off a defeat.