Published September 29, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
The Wyoming Cowboys visit the North Dakota State Bison in college football on Saturday, October 3, with kickoff set for 3:30 p.m. ET. The North Dakota State Bison are unbeaten this season, while the Wyoming Cowboys arrive with a split record; the North Dakota State Bison have the better record. The model leans decisively toward the hosts, setting up a matchup in which the season records and the projected scoring both point in the same direction.
What the model expects
The model's estimates are not certainties. It gives the North Dakota State Bison 88% to win and the Wyoming Cowboys 12%, with the likelier result being a North Dakota State Bison win. That projection sits at the model's stated ceiling of 88%, its highest permitted win probability for a side. The expectation is clear, though the model stops short of treating any outcome as certain.
The model projects North Dakota State Bison for 29 points and Wyoming Cowboys for 13.8, with 42.8 in all. Its projected margin is the North Dakota State Bison by 15.2 points. Together, those expectations describe a game in which the North Dakota State Bison are forecast to produce the larger share of the scoring, while the Wyoming Cowboys are still projected to put points on the board. The forecast favors a comfortable result for the North Dakota State Bison, rather than a close finish, but it remains a projection rather than a settled outcome.