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GOALORITHM / NFL

Game analysis · college football

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Iowa State Cyclones 45-42 West Virginia Mountaineers: Game Analysis & Model Review

A 45-42 win for the Iowa State Cyclones over the West Virginia Mountaineers in college football, Saturday, October 3: the box score, the top performers and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 3, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before the game →

Game report

The Iowa State Cyclones beat the West Virginia Mountaineers 45-42 in college football on Saturday, October 3. The Iowa State Cyclones won by three points, with both teams producing substantial yardage and the Iowa State Cyclones converting more first downs.

The numbers

The Iowa State Cyclones gained 577 total yards, including 312 passing and 265 rushing. The West Virginia Mountaineers finished with 518 yards: 227 through the air and 291 on the ground.

The Iowa State Cyclones had 29 first downs to the West Virginia Mountaineers’ 19, and held possession for 38:14 compared with 21:46. On third down, the Iowa State Cyclones converted 45.5%; the West Virginia Mountaineers converted 38.5%. The Iowa State Cyclones committed 1 turnover, while the West Virginia Mountaineers had 2.

Top performers

For the Iowa State Cyclones, Aiden Flora ran for 212 yards on 22 carries, with 3 touchdowns, the game’s standout rushing contribution. Jaylen Raynor completed 19 of 27 passes for 264 yards, with a touchdown and an interception, while Cody Jackson caught 6 passes for 160 yards, with a touchdown. On defense, Keyon Washington had a sack; Kyle Konrardy made 1 of 1 field goals.

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For the West Virginia Mountaineers, Michael Hawkins Jr. completed 11 of 23 passes for 227 yards, with 2 touchdowns and also ran for 149 yards on 20 carries, with 2 touchdowns as the team’s leading rusher. DJ Epps caught 4 passes for 114 yards, with a touchdown, while Isaiah Patterson had an interception.

How the model called it

Goalorithm’s pregame chances were estimates. The model gave the Iowa State Cyclones 74.1% to win and the West Virginia Mountaineers 25.9%. Its favorite was the Iowa State Cyclones to win; the model's favorite won.

See every number for this game in the Game Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and game records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

college football

Iowa State Cyclones vs West Virginia Mountaineers

Sat, Oct 3 · 12:00 PM ET

Final

45–42

The model before the game

Iowa State Cyclones
74.1%
West Virginia Mountaineers
25.9%

The model's favourite won.

The numbers

Iowa State CyclonesStatisticWest Virginia Mountaineers
1turnovers2
29first downs19
577total yards518
265rushing yards291
312net passing yards227
38:14time of possession21:46
45.5%third-down conversion rate38.5%
Open the Game Center

Thu, Oct 8 · 7:00 PM ET

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