Published September 28, 2026 · Updated October 3, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Wales host Denmark in the UEFA Nations League on Sunday, October 4, with kick-off at 2:45 p.m. ET at Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff. The model’s clearest expectation is a Denmark win, while Denmark sit above Wales. Wales arrive after a win in their most recent listed match; Denmark’s most recent listed match was a defeat.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model gives Wales 25.4%, a draw 26.2% and Denmark 48.4%; its likeliest result is a Denmark win. It projects Wales for 1.2 expected goals and Denmark for 1.7.
The model lists 1-1 at 11.5%, 1-2 at 9% and 0-1 at 9% among its likeliest exact scores. Its goals figures are over 2.5 goals at 54.8% and under 2.5 goals at 45.2%. The model gives a 56.3% probability that both teams score, while the probability that at least one side fails to score is 43.7%.
Form and standings
Wales are WLL across their last 3 games, with 1 win and 2 defeats and 2 goals scored and 4 conceded. Their latest listed result was a 2-1 home win against Norway on October 1.
Denmark are LWL across their last 3 games, also with 1 win and 2 defeats; they have 6 goals scored and 7 conceded. Their latest listed result was a 4-2 home defeat to Portugal on October 1.
Wales are 4th in League A - Group D with 0 points from 2 games; Denmark are 3rd in League A - Group D with 3 points from 2 games. Denmark sit above Wales.